The recent rebound in A-shares due to overselling has a clear target - it's aimed at the 60-day moving average. The ChiNext has already broken through it in advance, and the main index is now steadily approaching this key position (corresponding to the 3900-point integer mark). However, that being said, when it actually reaches the target, the market may have to go through some turmoil again. Let me discuss this from three perspectives: index trends, driving factors, and zone opportunities.

**The target for the index rebound is very clear, but be careful of fluctuations after the breakout**

After last Friday's panic sell-off, I judged that there would definitely be a Rebound this week. Now, major indices have returned to around the 60-day moving average, and there is significant short-term pressure at this level. Based on the current situation:

The ChiNext Index has broken through the 60-day moving average, and is now facing profit-taking pressure, likely needing to digest floating capital through fluctuations; the main index is approaching the 3900 point (the 60-day moving average coinciding with the round number), under double pressure, it's estimated that it will also need to consolidate at this position.

It is important to note that the 60-day moving average is a significant trend line. This oversold rebound is essentially a recovery to the moving average. After the rebound reaches its target, the market will face a choice of direction: if it can break through and stabilize above the 60-day moving average with increased volume, then it can continue to rise; if the trading volume remains sluggish, the rebound may face resistance and might have to return to continue building a base. For those stocks in previously popular zones that have fallen below the 60-day moving average, the target for this oversold rebound can also be referenced around the 60-day moving average.

**The global sentiment easing combined with multiple favorable factors is pushing the A-shares upward**

This week's rebound in the A-shares is not an isolated phenomenon; global stock markets are also warming up in sync. Last week, the global market collectively corrected, and this week has entered a period of easing sentiment, with major financial markets rebounding. Specifically for A-shares, there are several positive factors at play:

First, the RMB exchange rate has clearly appreciated recently, providing support for the rise in Chinese asset prices; secondly, sectors such as technology and new energy have adjusted sufficiently in the early stages, and after the panic selling last Friday, some funds have already started to counter-trade in anticipation of an oversold rebound; additionally, with the new batch of 16 technology-themed funds about to start fundraising, some capital is preemptively moving to push prices up, waiting for the new funds to come in and take over.

These factors combined constitute the core driving force behind this rebound in the A-shares oversold market, and also provide a foundation for the zone rotation.

**How to view today's market rhythm and zone opportunities**

*Index level: The market is steadily advancing, while the ChiNext board needs to guard against a rebound followed by a fall.*

Today, there is no need to worry too much about the market. The brokerage zone has started to rise after continuous horizontal fluctuations, and the core goal is clearly to drive the market to break through the 60-day moving average (I pointed out the potential opportunity of the brokerage zone's fluctuation and accumulation yesterday). As for the ChiNext index, the divergence of the yellow and white lines in the intraday chart has obviously widened, and it has already taken the lead in breaking through the 60-day moving average. The possibility of a significant rise today is low, and we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback after a rise. Corresponding weight zones such as AI hardware and lithium battery may also decline simultaneously.

*zone level: rotation is the main focus, pay attention to oversold and high prosperity direction*

The current market is mainly characterized by rotation, with stronger rebound momentum in previously active directions, and core opportunities concentrated in three major areas:

**Technology Zone**: Includes AI hardware and AI application software. Recently, AI hardware has shown outstanding Rebound performance, while there are divergences in application software. However, the long-term logic remains intact. Today may see a return of funds. I still have more confidence in next year's AI application software.

**Anti-Involution Zone**: Mainly focused on new energy and cyclical non-ferrous metals. Today, lithium mine batteries and the non-ferrous metals zone performed well. In terms of operations, attention can be focused on oversold stocks that have fallen below the 60-day moving average, using the 60-day moving average as a reference for rebound targets.

**Dividends and Consumption**: The consumption zone rose yesterday due to favorable stimuli, with quantitative funds lifting it in the late session. However, quantitative arbitrage behaviors may affect the zone's sustainability, and oversold targets can wait for rotation rebound opportunities. The dividend zone mainly focuses on high-dividend directions like banks and coal. After a sharp fall, the coal zone is consolidating sideways, and a rebound from the oversold condition is expected. The logic behind the bank zone's rise complements that of the technology growth zone. If the technology growth rebounds face resistance and the market's defensive sentiment rises, banks may see an increase (today, under the backdrop of resistance in the ChiNext rebound, there is a probability of banks rising during the session).

In summary, the core logic of the current market is "oversold rebound to fill the 60-day moving average". Both indices and individual stocks should formulate operational strategies around this goal. The ChiNext has already shown signs of encountering resistance near the 60-day moving average. In the future, the main index and most oversold individual stocks will also face similar tests. Funds speculating on the oversold rebound should pay close attention to changes in trading volume and moving average breakout conditions, and adjust flexibly in response.