1⃣ Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30% from its $126,000 high, wiping out $1.2 trillion from the entire market. Is this a bear market or just a pullback?

2⃣ Latest opinions from Banxiamu

- $80,500 can basically be confirmed as an important low point this cycle, possibly even the lowest point
- This is a "sideways bear market"—no big crash, just a grinding process
- The bear market has lasted 3 months and may drag on for another 3–4 months before ending
- Reason: US stock AI bubble + Fed stopping quantitative tightening in December + massive liquidity in 2026 will greatly shorten the bear market cycle
- Conclusion: You can steadily buy spot and hold until the end of the next bull market

Link->

3⃣ How do Western traders see it?

- Rekt Capital: Currently struggling at the bottom of a macro descending triangle (82K). If the monthly closes reclaim the 90–100K downtrend line = back to bull market; else, bear market accelerates

- Philakone (veteran bear market hunter): 100% confirmed bear market. First rebound will reach 77–80K, but then new lows, target 35–40K (-78% ~ -86%)

- Crypto Rover: Four-year cycle has turned bearish. RSI is identical to the 2022 bottom; if the cloud support is lost, it’s a full confirmation

- Jason Pizzino: Eight consecutive days of extreme fear is normal, but if 80K holds there’s still a chance to turn bullish; it’s not yet the moment of despair

- Other extreme pessimists (e.g. ChartingProdigy): BTC 15–20K, ETH 1–1.5K, SOL $60–80, 95% of altcoins to zero

4⃣ Current market consensus and disagreement:

- Consensus: Bear market has started (confirmed by cycle, technicals, and macro)
- Old altcoins pumping = classic end-of-bull-market signal
- Fear & Greed Index at extreme fear = usually a bottom area

Disagreements

- Depth: Shallow bear 20–50% (Banxiamu line) vs Deep bear 80%+ (other lines)

- Duration: 3–6 months to end (Banxiamu) vs lasting until end of 2026 (traditional cycle theorists)

Catalysts: Fed’s massive liquidity in 2026 + AI bubble = early ending vs dropping until everyone surrenders like 2022

5⃣ My take (purely personal view): This cycle didn’t have the kind of crazy blow-off top like 2021, which means assets are more mature and the drop will likely be smaller than last cycle.

70K is very likely one of the bottom points; for long-term spot holders, DCA looks cost-effective.

- Only keep the top 25 altcoins, treat all others as meme/shit coins unless there’s a specific narrative and conviction

Check this post at year-end ->

Short term will be grinding (sideways + fake rebounds), but once liquidity returns in 2026, the market could rebound to 100K faster than most expect

AI bubble analysis here ->

Most important thing right now: Survival comes first—don’t use leverage, don’t go all in

TP details see this post ->

6/ Final words:
Every bear market weeds out the impatient, the cashless, and those without conviction.

Survive!!