#BTC

November 24 Bitcoin Trend Explanation and Intraday Analysis:

BTC: The weekly chart shows another volume drop with a lower shadow indicating a medium bearish candle. The K-line has broken below the weekly MA90 moving average, dipping to around 80,000, reaching the year's low. In the first half of the year, risk assets were significantly pressured and fell due to the trade war, with Bitcoin dropping below 80,000, followed by a month-long bottoming process. This round of decline is attributed to three macro factors (government shutdown, internal divisions in the Federal Reserve, and regional tensions), causing Bitcoin to drop by 35%. Last week, it fell back to the year's low near 80,000 (corresponding to the strongest resistance line at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Currently, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, leading to a slight rebound in the market. However, the overall weekly trend still maintains a downward trajectory. Before a reversal occurs, a longer bottoming process is needed, and the space for the lower shadow in the weekly technical aspect needs to be repaired through a double-test backtrack.

Last Friday, a huge pin bar signal was released on the daily chart, with the K-line closing as a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating that the market fell to around 80,000, followed by buying pressure entering the market. This K-line signal is the daily stop-loss signal we have mentioned multiple times in the past two weeks that we need to wait for. From the K-line rebound over the past two days, the current rebound is a weak pullback, and the trading volume has not kept up with the price, which also reflects that the current market selling pressure has obviously decreased. The short-term moving average system (MA7/14) has not been broken, and the rebound has just touched the MA7 moving average, indicating a temporary stagnation. The market still needs to make slight adjustments to reverse the downward trend of the moving averages. The MACD indicator shows signs of turning at the 0-axis fast line, and the negative value of the histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the bearish trend is weakening and bulls are starting to enter, but a reversal signal has not yet formed. In the subsequent market, pay close attention to the volume-price performance, with the daily and 4-hour lines showing a volume increase followed by a pullback, within the pullback range of 84-82, thereby constructing a new stage bottom box structure to lay the foundation for a significant rebound in the subsequent market. At the same time, the 92K line above will be the first resistance line for the subsequent market rebound, and the 100-102 range will be a concentrated selling pressure area that will require a long period of bottoming or significant positive stimulus to break through.

In intraday trading, focus on the support at 96-95 for rebound opportunities, and pay attention to the resistance near the 89 level above.