Last week, BTC’s weekly chart broke below the key annual trendline MA52. Today at noon, it fell below 90,000, and the Fear Index dropped to 9. I believe many of you are feeling extremely anxious. Has the bear market really arrived?

Based on the known information, I still can’t say with 100% certainty that the bear market has begun. I think market participants have split into several camps: one still bullish, one firmly short, but I believe the largest group right now are the swing traders, those torn between whether to buy the dip or cut losses and exit.

Today, I deployed 40% of the funds I set aside for increasing my BTC position. The average entry for three trades was at 91.1K, so I didn’t catch any orders below 90K. After dinner, I came across a video that I thought was quite good. The video didn’t focus on the bull vs. bear debate for BTC. Instead, it centered on the question: Do you still believe in the future of Bitcoin and the crypto industry at this moment? As an individual trader, how should you face the current situation?

I tried to extract the core message from the video and reconstruct its solid logical framework. I believe this will be an insightful revelation for many. Next, let’s set aside complicated data and focus on the most crucial question: Should you buy more? How should you do it?

First, the video identifies our current phase: the inflection point between bull and bear markets. This period is important because in the next month or two, the overall direction for BTC is likely to be set. Currently, the price is hovering below the 100,000 psychological support, while the average institutional entry price is around 74,000.

If we really enter a bear market, the price may move toward institutional cost levels.

If we continue the post-May 2021 uptrend, the next target could reach 135,000.

That’s almost a twofold difference, which means your decision now will directly impact future returns. But more important than “what price to buy” is the core that many ignore—time.

More important than price: your time cost

Those who follow me know I’ve always prioritized time over technical indicators and data. Time cost is the most uncontrollable and easily overlooked.

The current price of 93,000 is much lower than the previous 126,000. Some say “holding long-term will surely go up.” I don’t deny that. But the key isn’t “will it go up,” but “when will it go up?”

Anyone can believe BTC will reach 200,000 in 20 years, but how many 20 years do we have in our lives?

We invest in crypto not to bet on the “distant future,” but to see how much return we can get in a controllable timeframe. This view matches what I previously shared: for example, when I first sold 10% of my large BTC position at 122,000 (my original plan was to start selling at 130,000, but I missed it by 8,000), and the second time sold another 10% at 123,000. You might say I’m too cautious, and if the price rises, these trades would look like missed opportunities.

But as I wrote at the time, I adjust my trading plan in real time based on the actual trend and timing. I don’t judge my decisions by single-trade profits, but by whether I can accept the time cost of that choice. Looking back, this decision was reasonable. Even if BTC hits 150,000 this time, I won’t regret how I managed that 20% of my position.

Time cost is critical for me personally, since I haven’t achieved financial freedom. That’s why I keep emphasizing that everyone’s capital has a cost. If you’re wealthy, your time cost may be lower; if you use leverage, your time cost is much higher. If the market doesn’t go as expected, you have to face this core issue directly.

The four-year cycle is a test of consensus around time. If you think this way, do Wall Street institutions think the same? I don’t know, but I do believe the underlying logic is changing, so I’ve extended my own holding period by about half a year.

If we’re considering entering again or holding firm right now, it’s best to ask yourself these three questions; the answers will become clear (I believe these questions apply to BTC, ETH, and other major coins with value; I’ve discussed this from a different angle in my live streams):

1. If it does turn into a bear market, how long can you tolerate a downtrend? 1 year? 2 years? Or will you become anxious and break down if it falls below a certain point in time?

2. While holding, do you have better investment opportunities elsewhere? For example, your main job or a side hustle that could generate higher returns for your capital?

3. Looking back three years from now, will you regret not buying more now, or regret not reallocating your funds to something safer sooner?

Once you’ve thought these questions through, you can develop your own strategy according to your situation:

1. If you can accept a 2-4 year holding period and have no better investment options: consider averaging in over time; don’t stress about whether it’s 93K or 88K, small price differences matter little in the long run.

2. If you’re only willing to wait 6-12 months, or don’t want to endure a bear market: don’t add more now. Either set aside some holdings as a long-term experiment and gradually exit the rest on rebounds, or just accept the status quo and treat this money as a ten-year lottery ticket, then focus on things that can pay off within a year or two and ensure you can make money.

3. As I mentioned in my last update, if I were to use the remaining 30% of my large position to buy more BTC, my plan would be roughly as follows (for reference only): split it into three steps—start with a small position now to avoid missing a rebound; add more if it drops to the 74,000 institutional cost area and market panic sets in; if it falls below institutional cost and the narrative is “BTC bubble burst,” deploy the final funds.

I used AI to generate a trading plan table based on this logic, which you might find useful. Lastly, I think the video’s script summed it up well:

The essence of investing is choosing who to give your time to. Investing is a lot like dating: you put in time and effort, but things may not develop as expected. Crypto is far more volatile than traditional markets; don’t naively believe that “holding for ten years will guarantee profits”—you might not even keep up your insurance premiums for ten years, let alone assets that can soar or crash at any time.

Adding now isn’t about “choosing a price,” but about “choosing whether to devote a period of your life to Bitcoin (or an altcoin you believe in).” Figure out how much time you can commit and what risks you can bear. If one day you’re willing to give your money and time to BTC, you’re unlikely to get swept up by market emotions. #比特币行情观察