Fed policy divergence intensifies: the crypto market is facing a critical moment of liquidity expectation reconstruction.

Core contradiction: When top Wall Street investment banks revise interest rate cut expectations based on economic data, the incoming government's economic advisor publicly criticizes the monetary policy as "ill-timed"—this rare policy-level confrontation is pushing the crypto market into a complex situation characterized by both short-term volatility and mid-term turning points.
1. Policy expectation reversal: from unanimous rate cuts to path divergence
JPMorgan's hawkish shift marks a turning point in the market pricing logic. The bank has withdrawn its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, pushing expectations to January or April next year. This adjustment is based on two core variables:
1. Economic data resilience: Recent retail sales, PMI and other indicators show that the pace of economic cooling is not as expected, especially the employment market remains in a relatively tight balance.
2. Inflation base effect: Although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has moderated, the stickiness of core service prices remains strong, forcing the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see attitude.
However, Kevin Hassett's fierce criticism reveals another side of the policy debate. As a potential economic advisor for the Trump administration, his views have a distinct political economy logic:
• Misalignment of fiscal and monetary policies: The government shutdown directly impacts Q4 economic activity, with GDP potentially losing 1.5 percentage points. Against the backdrop of fiscal contraction, if monetary policy tightens simultaneously, it will create a "double whammy" situation.
• Political and economic cycle considerations: The new government needs a loose monetary environment to align with its economic agenda, and Hassett's statement can be seen as "expectation management" for the Fed.
Key data verification: The latest CPI year-on-year growth is 3.1% (previous value 3.2%), and the core CPI remains stable at 3.9%. This "moderate decline but not meeting the standard" situation precisely provides space for policy divergence—hawks see it as "not low enough" while doves see it as "improving."
2. The Transmission Mechanism of the Crypto Market: The Triple Impact of Liquidity Expectations
The high sensitivity of Bitcoin to Fed policy (with a β coefficient of 2.3) means that any adjustments in interest rate cut expectations will amplify into severe price fluctuations.
Short-term shock wave:
• Leverage liquidation pressure: According to Coinglass data, the current open interest in the entire network is approximately $38 billion, with a high leverage ratio of over 25 times accounting for 18%. If liquidity expectations continue to tighten, there is approximately $1.2 billion of concentrated liquidation risk below $85,000.
• Funding rate signal: The current perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative, indicating that the market has shifted from "longs paying" to "shorts paying", and sentiment has entered a cautious zone.
• Institutional Position Adjustment: The exchange's Bitcoin balance increased by approximately 32,000 coins over the past week, indicating that some holders are transferring assets to trading platforms in preparation for a sell-off.
Mid-term logical restructuring:
Hassett pointed out that the "economic drag" effect may translate into policy pressure on the Fed in the next 2-3 months. Historical data shows:
• Impact of government shutdowns: The two long shutdowns in 2018-2019 led to a significant weakening of economic data, forcing the Fed to release dovish signals in subsequent monetary policy meetings.
• Correlation between GDP growth and interest rate cuts: When the annualized growth rate of GDP falls below 1.5% in a quarter, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates within 3 months exceeds 70%.
This means that the current hawkish expectations may be a temporary phenomenon caused by "data lags." Once the impact of the shutdown is reflected in the data for December and January next year, the monetary policy stance may quickly shift.
III. Market Outlook: Fluctuations in Depth and the Coexistence of Strategic Windows
Short term (1-4 weeks): oscillating downwards to find the bottom
During periods of mixed policy signals, the market will face:
• Volatility expansion: It is expected that BTC will oscillate in the range of $82,000 to $95,000, with a daily fluctuation of up to 5%-8%.
• Sector differentiation: Layer 1 public chains and DeFi and other infrastructure assets may experience larger declines than BTC due to strong liquidity demands; whereas Layer 2 and payment projects, being fundamentally independent, are relatively more resilient to downturns.
• Key observation window: Any statements from officials before the Fed's interest rate meeting on December 20 may trigger significant volatility.
Medium term (1-3 months): Policy inflection point is approaching
The decisive variables will be the December non-farm data and the preliminary Q4 GDP: if the unemployment rate rises above 4.3% or if GDP shows significant stagnation, the market will reprice the interest rate cut path. At that time, it is possible to see:
• Liquidity expectation reversal: The market may trade ahead on the expectations of "January emergency rate cut" or "March significant rate cut of 50 basis points".
• Configure capital backflow: Reports from institutions like Grayscale indicate that there is still about $4.7 billion in cash waiting to enter the market after "clear policy signals".
• Technical resonance: If the policy turns towards confirming strong support at 78,000-80,000 USD, it may form a "macro + technical" double bottom.
IV. Investment Strategy: Building Antifragility in Uncertainty
The current environment requires investors to abandon "one-way bets" and shift towards dynamic hedging and structural layouts:
1. Position Management: Layered Position Building Principle
• Defense Layer (50% Position): Allocate BTC/ETH spot, only as core holding, avoid any leverage.
• Hedging Layer (30% Position): Hold stablecoins or implement volatility strategies (such as selling straddles) to earn time value.
• Offensive Layer (20% Position): Participate lightly in high liquidity altcoin rebounds, strictly set a 5% stop loss.
2. Data Monitoring: Establish a Macro Dashboard
Key indicators that must be tracked in real-time include:
• CME FedWatch Tool: A change in interest rate cut probability of more than 15 percentage points constitutes a trend reversal signal.
• Tether/USDC minting volume: The new issuance of stablecoins reflects the willingness of off-exchange funds to enter the market.
• Miner Position Index (MRI): Continuous selling by miners often indicates that the bottom has not yet been reached.
3. Sector Selection: Anti-Cycle and Strong Narrative
• Cyclical resistance sectors: Layer 2 (Arbitrum, Optimism), decentralized storage (Filecoin), payment networks (Lightning Network), etc., whose fundamentals are less correlated with macro Liquidity.
• Strong narrative sectors: RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization), AI + Crypto crossover projects, possessing long-term logic independent of bull and bear markets.
4. Extreme Scenario Contingency Plan
• If BTC falls below $80,000: immediately reduce the offensive layer position to below 10%, and increase the hedging layer to 40%.
• If there is an unexpected interest rate cut in December: increase the defensive layer to 70% within 24 hours after confirming the signal and remove the hedge.
5. Risk Warning: Three Easily Overlooked Variables
1. Political risk premium: The personnel arrangements of the Trump administration may lead to sudden changes in regulatory policies, particularly speculation about the SEC chairman candidate will affect ETF approval expectations.
2. Stablecoin Regulation: The EU MiCA legislation is about to be fully implemented, and the legislative process in the United States is also accelerating. The rising compliance costs may impact the DeFi ecosystem.
3. On-chain Liquidity exhaustion: If a sharp decline leads to bad debts in multiple mainstream protocols, it may trigger systemic risks similar to the Three Arrows Capital event in 2022.
The core contradiction in the current crypto market is the time lag between "hawkish policy expectations" and "dovish economic realities." JPMorgan's forecast revision represents data-driven rational judgment, while Hassett's warning reflects the inevitable demands of the political economic cycle. For investors, this is neither the apocalypse nor an opportunity to buy the dip, but rather an elimination round that tests macro understanding and position discipline.
The real opportunity does not lie in predicting when the Fed will pivot, but in whether you have sufficient ammunition and a clear mind when the pivot occurs. Preserving capital during chaotic times and decisively increasing your position at the turning point is the survival rule for navigating cycles. #逆势上涨币种推荐 #美联储会议纪要将公布 #比特币行情观察