2025-11-19 14:42:05

There is an interesting situation in the prediction markets: Polymarket users see the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching 200 thousand dollars in November as three times lower than the probability of Jesus Christ resurrecting this year. This data provides an interesting perspective on the expectation level of the crypto markets this year.

BTC-2.05%

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zkProofInThePudding

· 11-22 11:13

The probability of BTC hitting 200k is even lower than that of Jesus resurrecting? This is hilarious, the betting market is truly surreal.

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SocialAnxietyStaker

· 11-22 07:20

BTC hitting 200,000 isn't as miraculous as Jesus' resurrection? LOL, this market is really crazy.

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TokenStorm

· 11-20 03:09

Ha, this ratio is ridiculously funny, what does it actually indicate? --- The probability intuition of these Polymarket folks really needs calibration; the confidence level of $200,000 is surprisingly less than that of religious miracles. --- The composition of participants in the on-chain prediction market is a problem; this data itself is worth backtesting. --- Ironically, the less likely something is, the more likely it is to happen; I have long seen through this gambler's psychology. --- Wait, is this saying that the consensus in the crypto market is fragile, or that the power of faith is stronger than technical analysis? --- I bet that the judgment that betting $200,000 is harder than achieving redemption; 80% of Polymarket users probably haven't even calculated historical volatility. --- The clearest moment in the eye of the storm is when everyone is betting in reverse, hmm.

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SatoshiNotNakamoto

· 11-19 15:11

lol this comparison is really ridiculous, it shows that people in the crypto world are indeed not very optimistic about BTC breaking 200k in November.

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GateUser-44a00d6c

· 11-19 15:11

Ngl, this comparison is honestly ridiculous. The betting market is always more real than the market itself... People's faith in fantasies is surprisingly strong.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 11-19 15:11

Looking at this data late at night, I calculated for a long time, and it's really absurd that Polymarket users set the probability of BTC at 200k so low. Do they not believe it even more than the resurrection of Jesus? I can't figure out where this logic comes from, even with the gas tracker open.

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ReverseFOMOguy

· 11-19 15:09

Is it really that hard for BTC to hit 200,000? It's even more unlikely than the resurrection of Jesus, haha.

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ConsensusDissenter

· 11-19 15:08

The probability of BTC reaching $200,000 is actually lower than the resurrection of Jesus? This data is ridiculous, haha.

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SatsStacking

· 11-19 15:06

Is it harder for BTC to reach 200,000 than for Jesus to resurrect? LOL, this market is really crazy.