#BTC# Expansion from the 50W SMA?

The last 2 days were devastating for most people. We all need some hopium now. First of all, I should say that it is still too early to speak but I will make a statistical analysis on the BTC expansions in this cycle that started after re-testing the 50W SMA.

First of all, the bear market ended when BTC broke above the 50W SMA.

In April 2023, it didn't re-test the 50W SMA but came very close. Then, it expanded 196.17% from that point in 26 weeks.

In August 2024, it wicked below the 50W SMA, and expanded 122.75% from that point. It also had another touch in September before going up. The run lasted 24 weeks.

In April 2025, again BTC wicked below the 50W SMA, and then had a 69.53% run in 26 weeks.

Today, BTC wicked below the 50W SMA and is still below it. First, I should say that in case BTC closes the week below it (102,850), it will show extreme weakness. And if we have 2 consecutive closes, the bull run is over.

Let's assume that BTC closes the week above 102,850 and the 50W SMA re-test stays as a wick.

By extrapolating the data and calculating the rate of decline between each data point, BTC may have another 34% to 40% run from the last wick.

This puts BTC into a price range between 132,610 and 138,550 with an average of 135,580.

However, even though the last 3 runs took 26, 24, 26 weeks, I don't think we have another 26 weeks to go until May 2026. The cycle is delayed because of the tariffs and the government shutdown, but I think BTC will go back to this point at the end of December or the beginning of January.

The Fib extension of the last range and the 2nd Fib extension of the previous cycle also points to the same range that we have calculated in terms of the 50W SMA expansion.

It is still early to speak but we will find out soon.