#美联储降息展望 Important Reminder: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing Time on October 30. Market consensus expects a 25 basis point cut, which is already largely certain. However, the real focus should be on the press conference with Jerome Powell starting at 2:30 AM. In the current unusual period of government shutdown and missing key economic data, how Powell guides market expectations will be a decisive factor influencing global asset prices over the coming months.

Three major challenges Powell faces:

1. Political intervention pressure: How to maintain the independence of Federal Reserve decisions in an environment where Trump openly opposes?
2. Direction of monetary policy: Will there be adjustments to the balance sheet reduction schedule? Will subsequent interest rate cuts be a one-time move or a continuous policy?
3. Data shortage dilemma: How to accurately assess the economic situation and inflation outlook amid incomplete and unreliable economic data?

Every statement he makes could trigger significant market fluctuations!

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Analysis of three possible market scenarios:

📊 Scenario One: Clearly dovish stance (Probability: 40%)

· Action: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points and clearly signal ongoing easing
· Market reaction:
· Bitcoin: Likely to break through the resistance level of $115,000 and head toward a new high of $118,000
· Other cryptocurrencies: Generally surge significantly, market sentiment is high

📊 Scenario Two: Hawkish tendency (Probability: 50%)

· Action: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points but emphasize that inflation still requires vigilance, without promising future rate cuts
· Market reaction:
· Bitcoin: Fluctuate sharply within the $112,000 - $114,500 range, with an unclear trend
· Other cryptocurrencies: Experience a notable pullback as investors quickly exit high-risk assets

📊 Scenario Three: Unexpectedly maintain current interest rates (Probability: 10%)

· Action: Shock the market by announcing no change to the current interest rate
· Market reaction:
· Bitcoin: Could sharply fall below the important support level of $100,000, triggering panic selling $BTC
$ETH
$SOL