How will the US government shutdown on the 9th day affect the subsequent market?

The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for nine days (as of October 10, 2025), with a deadlock in the budget bill vote extending the shutdown, affecting issues such as the suspension of IRS operations, half of the employees being off work, and flight delays.

Key impacts: The government shutdown has led to a halt in the release of official economic data, with labor market data being delayed; insufficient air traffic control personnel has caused flight delays, and most IRS operations have stopped.

The prolonged suspension has intensified market uncertainty, with the dollar index pressured down to around 98.75, reflecting a rise in risk-averse sentiment; expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have strengthened (with a 95% probability of a cut in October), while government bond yields have changed little (the 10-year yield has slightly increased to 4.14%), indicating that investors remain cautious about the fiscal deficit and demand for government bonds.
Potential risks: If the shutdown continues, it may further suppress economic growth and exacerbate short-term downward pressure on the US dollar; however, movements in Federal Reserve policy or unexpected changes in economic data could trigger market volatility.
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#美国政府停摆风险