Powell's Ultimate Counterattack: A Political Chess Game Without Visible Smoke

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell dropped a "bomb" during what seemed to be a calm press conference.
The market quickly realized that this was not an ordinary interest rate meeting, but a clever counterattack against Trump.
In this game, the weapon in Powell's hand was handed to him by Trump himself, and it is completely legal.
Interest rates? Don't think about lowering them.
Last week, the Federal Reserve chose to stand pat and keep interest rates unchanged.
But during the Q&A session, Powell dropped a heavy signal:
"Interest rates will not be lowered unless there are significant economic issues."
The meaning is very clear: there will be no rate cut in September, and it may not even happen this year.
Why? Powell has found a perfect reason - tariffs.
Tariff: A Godsend Shield
Trump is pushing for a new round of comprehensive tariff plans.
Powell takes this as a reason for inflation risks:
"Let's first take a look at the impact of tariffs on the economy."
The brilliance of this sentence lies in the fact that it can be repeated indefinitely.
A few months later, if someone urges for a rate cut, Powell can still say: "The impact of tariffs is not yet clear."
On the surface, he is insisting on independence; in reality, he is using Trump's policies to delay interest rate cuts.
Data is the best hostage
Powell has another strong backing - inflation data.
Core PCE data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about:
April: 2.6%
May: 2.7%
June: 2.8%
The trend is upward. Powell certainly will not lower interest rates when inflation is rising, which provides a "scientific basis" for his delaying tactics.
Trump's embarrassment
Trump hopes to cut interest rates for two reasons:
Reduce government bond interest expenses
stimulate the economy
Sounds reasonable, but the problem is:
You can't boast about a strong economy while complaining about high debt repayment costs.
This makes it easier for Powell to fight back.
The chain reaction of inflation
Tariffs not only directly raise the prices of imported goods but also trigger the "opportunistic price increase" effect.
When Trump imposed tariffs on washing machines, the price of dryers also increased.
The price increase of enterprises is not because costs must rise, but because there is an opportunity. Powell knows this well.
The market begins to awaken
After Powell's speech, U.S. stocks quickly fell - investors were hoping to hear some dovish signals, but instead received "delay + cold water."
For investors, this means:
The high interest rate environment will last longer.
Unfavorable for real estate, discretionary consumption, and heavily indebted companies
But not all sectors are hurt.
Investment strategy: Don't be blind, and don't withdraw.
If Powell's goal is not only 2% inflation but also maintaining market stability and the survival space of the Federal Reserve, then in the long run, asset prices still need support.
My suggestion:
Avoid industries that are highly sensitive to interest rates
Configure cash flow sufficient and profit stable "compound interest type" companies.
Pay attention to insurance stocks (such as Chubb, WR Berkley)
Maintain core holdings in U.S. mega-cap stocks.
This is not merely a monetary policy, but a carefully orchestrated political game.
Powell and Trump seem to be opposed, but they are united on one key objective: maintaining the rise in asset prices.
For investors, the worst strategy is not to endure volatility, but to be scared away by market noise.
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