Can the Ethereum pump trend continue? Bull vs Bear Battle focus

1. Potential Risks and Pressures
1. Technical overbought adjustment risk
RSI daily line rises to 72-84 (overbought range), if it cannot stabilize above 3900 USD in the short term, it may retrace to the 3650-3700 USD support.
Key resistance zone: 4100 USD (historical peak) gathers 2.82 million holding addresses, a breakthrough requires substantial capital support.
2. Concerns about supply-side selling pressure
Unlock Impact: 519,000 Ether (approximately 1.9 billion USD) are waiting to be unlocked. Historical patterns indicate a high probability of "unlock and sell", and the 9-11 day settlement period may trigger selling pressure.
Whale Profit Taking: Holders with a cost range of $2300-2500 (totaling $123 billion) may trigger panic selling if a pullback occurs to that range.
3. Macroeconomic policy disturbances
Regulatory uncertainty: The U.S. SEC's determination of ETH's securities nature is pending, and if the "GENIUS Act" is passed, it may restrict institutional holdings.
Federal Reserve policy shift: If the July interest rate decision sends a hawkish signal, it may suppress risk asset preferences.
2. Future Trend Forecast and Strategy Recommendations
1. Key Price Threshold
Bullish Scenario: Hold above $3800 support → Break through $3900 → Hit $4100-4200 (Target after breakout $4500+).
Bearish Scenario: Losing the support at $3650 → Rebounding to $3400-3500 (a dense support zone of 4.18 million addresses).
Investment Strategy Recommendations
2. Short-term trading:
Long position: Re-enter after a pullback to stabilize between 3720-3750 USD, stop loss at 3650, target at 3900-4000.
Short position: 4000-4050 USD under pressure to short, stop loss at 4100, target at 3800 (limited to quick rise scenario).
3. Medium to long-term layout:
Positioning range: 3500-3650 USD (weekly support), target 4500+, stop loss 3400.
Position Management: Total Position ≤ 20%, prioritize allocating staking combinations (such as Lido + Coinbase staking APY 5-7%).
Conclusion: Cautiously optimistic, closely monitor the three major signals.
Sustainability of funds: Can the ETF's weekly inflow maintain over $1.5 billion (current average)?
Technical breakthrough: Can the daily closing price stay above 3900 dollars for three consecutive days.
Macro Coordination: Will the Federal Reserve's July decision release expectations for interest rate cuts, and will the SEC's regulatory stance become clearer? #以太坊十周年 #美联储利率决议 #以太坊重返3800 #稳定币监管动向