Understand the impact of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) on the Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cuts in three scenarios with one chart [举手]

Weak (less than 100,000): A rate cut is possible in July, indicating a significant cooling in the job market;
Mildly weak (100,000–140,000): The probability of a rate cut in September is very high, but more data is needed for confirmation.
Strong (more than 170,000): Possible delay until the end of the year or no cuts, due to economic resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures.

The first scenario: The data is particularly poor, for example, if the number of new jobs is less than 100,000.
This indicates that the job market is really slowing down, and the Federal Reserve (FED) may take action soon, with the possibility of lowering interest rates as early as July. Some Federal Reserve (FED) officials, such as Bowman, are already calling for a quick rate cut.

The second scenario: the data is standard, roughly between 100,000 and 140,000.
This falls under "mildly weak," and the market will interpret it as a matter of time before a rate cut occurs. While it may not happen immediately in July, the probability of a rate cut in September is quite high. In other words, this situation will make the market more certain—rate cuts are coming soon, just a matter of waiting.

The third scenario: the data is very strong, for example, the number of new jobs exceeds 170,000, and even wages are still rising.
This is relatively troublesome, indicating that the economy is still quite strong, inflation pressures are still present, and the Federal Reserve (FED) may continue to remain on hold, and it is even possible that they will wait until the end of the year to cut interest rates, or not cut at all this year.

So everyone remember, the non-farm payroll report is the "North Star" for the upcoming interest rate trends. Once the data comes out, the US dollar, gold, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq will all react instantly. Especially Bitcoin, as the market is betting on interest rate cuts, so if unexpectedly weak data appears, BTC is very likely to surge!
It is recommended to manage your positions well before the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, as there may be spike movements that trigger stop-loss orders on the day of the NFP. Don't get caught off guard!!! #BTC