#美联储会议纪要

[The "Dovish Ghost" in the Meeting Minutes: Are Rate Cut Expectations Still Alive?]
The FOMC meeting minutes, although written in a "hawkish" tone, still make the market read between the lines that "the ghost of dovishness is still lingering." This is a kind of almost pathological optimism: expectations for interest rate cuts have been suppressed, but they never really die.
The minutes emphasized that "evidence of a sustained decline in inflation must be observed," and acknowledged that the current standards have not yet been met. However, the market refuses to listen and insists that there will be a rate cut in September. It seems as if what the FOMC says is not reality, but rather a contrary indicator.
The worst part is that the market has gotten used to the Federal Reserve's tough talk but soft actions. While saying "no rate hikes are off the table," they quietly ease financial conditions, which is even more "mouthy but honest" than a bad boyfriend.
The current mindset of traders is: since you won’t say it outright, I’ll keep guessing; the more you deny it, the more I’ll bet. As a result, bond market yields have slightly risen, the stock market is hesitant, and gold is quietly poking its head up—completely treating the minutes as a trading script.
Final conclusion: The meeting minutes did not include the interest rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut is like a stubborn resident; even if the FOMC demolishes ten times, it still clings to the corner of the market.