In the past week, the cryptocurrency market has lacked heavy macro data stimulus, and market sentiment is mainly driven by three focuses: Does Trump make new moves? Can U.S.-China trade relations continue to ease? Is there any sign of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? All of these uncertainties could push the price of Bitcoin higher. What has attracted the most attention is that the United States has become more and more supportive of the crypto market. The three states of Arizona, New Hampshire, and Texas passed the "Bitcoin Reserve Act", coupled with the preliminary passage of the "Stablecoin Act", to accelerate the standardization of the crypto industry. The implementation of the bill will clarify the rules, reduce policy risks, and stimulate the surge in the issuance of stablecoins, attract traditional funds to enter the market, and benefit the currency circle in the long run. This series of measures marks an important step for the crypto industry to move towards mainstream finance. At the macro level, Fed officials have stated that they will not adjust interest rates in the short term, and the probability of interest rate cuts in June and July is extremely low. Market data shows that the probability of a rate cut is only 8.6% in June, 30.8% in July, and 51.3% in September, with the consensus expectation that a rate cut will only be possible in September. Although it is difficult to change the direction of capital flow in the short term when interest rates are expected to be stable, the investment value of crypto assets such as Bitcoin may receive more attention when the space for traditional financial arbitrage narrows.

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Bitcoin is 1.6% away from a new high, so why did it suddenly kill the yin? Is this the rhythm to the top? Is it possible to reverse? Or is it just a wash, and then rise after washing? What do you think now? Recently, it has refreshed its highs several times, approaching the $110,000 mark infinitely, but each time it has been followed by a significant pullback. There may be a "long trap" in this trend - the main funds use investors' expectations for new highs to attract high-chasing funds, and then cause the price to fall back to harvest chips, investors need to beware of falling into it. The current market is likely to enter a wide range of 4-hour periods. $110,000 has become a strong pressure level, $100,000 is a key support line of defense, and the two price ranges have become the core battlefield of the long and short game. If the bulls break through $110,000, it will open upside; If the bears fall below $100,000, it could trigger panic selling. Liquidation map data shows that there is a potential risk that the market will fall below the $100,000 mark. Once the bears dominate, the price may fall rapidly, triggering a chain reaction in the contract market, and a large number of long contracts are facing liquidation. Investors who "chase high and bet up" must be cautious and avoid blindly chasing high. In the face of long and short duels, it is more important to defend well than to point out.
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During the day, the currency price gradually approached the upper band of the Bollinger Band, and the highest test was 108070, but it has never been able to achieve an effective breakthrough. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands is an important indicator of upward pressure on prices, and this resistance fully shows that the upper selling pressure is heavy. At the same time, the "Black Three" pattern appears on the hourly candlestick chart, a classic bearish signal that often signals an increased probability of a short-term downtrend. The three consecutive falling black candles are like dark clouds pressing down on the city, casting a shadow on the originally positive trend. However, the market is not completely pessimistic, and the bottom parting pattern that appears at the bottom brings a hint of a turnaround to the short-term trend. If the bottom parting pattern can form an effective support, it is possible to reverse the potential downtrend and become the starting point for the bulls to counterattack. The current short-term support for Bitcoin is at the key level of 106000, and at this juncture, investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see strategy in the short term and pay close attention to market dynamics. If the price falls below this support level, it means that the bears have the upper hand, and the market may enter a deeper pullback, focusing on 104500-104200, on the contrary, if the price can break through the 107200 resistance level strongly, it is very likely to continue the upward trend, and investors can increase their positions in a timely manner to capture the subsequent upside opportunities. In addition, the trend of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands is also very important, it is not only an important support and resistance reference for the price, but also the shape change of the middle track can better reflect the strength of the market trend, and investors need to continue to pay attention to it to determine the direction of subsequent operations.