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After Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, people expected that trade tensions would ease, which pushed Bitcoin to break through the $100,000 mark for the first time since February this year, rising more than 7% in the early hours of Friday morning, hitting $104,000 per coin; Ethereum soared more than 20% during the day, breaking through $2,220 per coin. Gold slipped as the dollar rally broadened, weakening safe-haven demand amid fears of a global trade war. Spot gold fell below the 3,300 mark overnight, down nearly 2%. U.S. stocks jumped to intraday highs after Trump urged investors to "go out and buy stocks now." U.S. stocks closed up 0.6% on Thursday, the S&P 500 rose 0.58%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.07%. Cryptocurrency concept stocks led the market, Canaan Technology (CAN.O) rose nearly 9%, Robinhood(HOOD.O) rose 8%, Strategy(MSTR.O) rose more than 5%. Google A(GOOGL.O) up nearly 2%, Tesla (TSLA.O).
The instant long strategy released based on the evening market assessment has been effectively validated in the market. Bitcoin's price has risen strongly, reaching a peak of 104326 points; Ethereum has also achieved a breakthrough increase, with a daily rise of 20%, successfully standing above the key price level of 2200 USD. The current market is in an extreme one-way upward trend, and the technical structure models and indicator moving average systems under traditional technical analysis frameworks are no longer able to provide effective guidance on market trends. Observing from the perspective of market liquidity, the bullish force dominates absolutely, with funds continuously pouring in to push prices out of the realm of conventional technical analysis. This round of market conditions again confirms that in trending opportunities, precise directional judgment is far more critical than trading skills, and systematic risk awareness and preparation are prerequisites for seizing opportunities. It is worth noting that in a one-sided rising market, timely position management and profit-taking strategies are particularly important. Without a reasonable profit-taking mechanism, failing to convert paper profits into actual gains will trap trading behavior in a mere numerical fluctuation game. Investors should establish a scientific profit realization system, ensuring substantial growth in trading value while effectively locking in profits by dynamically adjusting positions and setting trailing stop-losses.
From the perspective of technical analysis, the conventional technical indicators and moving average system have lost their effectiveness in the current market environment, and there is a high risk of blindly predicting the top. In technical analysis, we should focus on weekly, daily and other large-cycle level trends, which can more clearly show the overall context of the market trend. The four-hour, hourly and other small-period charts can be used as the basis for judging the refined entry timing. Technical tools such as Bollinger bands and moving averages are in a state of disorderly divergence in the current market, and after the price breaks through the key resistance level, it is in the stage of strengthening the trend of continuous release of quantity and energy. It is easy to miss the trend opportunity to predict the top too early, and it is necessary to be vigilant that the price fluctuation amplitude increases significantly under extreme markets, whether it is a retracement or a rise, it may form a large space. The core focus of the market next is how to make a technical repair to the current rally. The repair method mainly includes two typical modes: one is the price correction repair, that is, the overbought pressure accumulated in the early stage is digested through the price decline; The second is sideways shock repair, which completes the repair of technical indicators in the way of time for space. Combined with the rhythm of market operation and space expansion in the early stage, it is more inclined to believe that the probability of sideways shock repair is higher, and this model can effectively alleviate the pressure of rapid price correction after a large increase in the market in the early stage. In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to continue to maintain a bullish idea and seize the opportunity of trend continuation. At the same time, it is necessary to strictly implement risk management measures and reasonably set stop-loss points in each transaction to prevent unexpected risks and ensure the robustness of the trading strategy.