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Important news: The Ethereum Pectra upgrade will take place at 3:05 AM PDT on May 7 (6:05 PM Beijing time on the same day). At the same time, new staking requests will resume processing after 6:45 PM, and existing staking positions will not be affected. This upgrade is highly anticipated and may have a series of impacts on Ethereum's performance, security, and ecosystem. Everyone should closely monitor the subsequent developments, as it could trigger market fluctuations. Both investors and developers should be prepared in advance to respond to potential changes.
U.S. stocks closed on Monday, showing a downward trend. The Dow initially closed down 0.2%, the S&P 500 down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq down 0.7%. Big tech stocks underperformed, with Tesla (TSLA. O) fell 2.4% and Apple (AAPL. O) fell 3.1% to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK. A.N、BRK. B.N) fell 5%. From the CME "Fed Watch" data: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.7%. By June, there is a 69.8% probability of keeping rates unchanged, a 29.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, and a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut. Such interest rate expectations may mean relative stability of funds for the currency circle, but macroeconomic uncertainty will still have a potential impact on the cryptocurrency market, after all, there is a certain amount of capital flow between US stocks and the currency circle.
The Bitcoin market is volatile, having experienced a continuous decline for three days before a violent surge last night, climbing all the way to 95000. The daily chart has turned bullish, temporarily recovering short-term losses for the bulls. Currently, the market situation shows a slight advantage for the bulls. The coin price hovers around 95000, having reached the upper level of a four-hour downward channel. From the 4-hour chart, the coin price temporarily maintains a fluctuation near the lower band of the middle track, and this area also serves as a support level for the ascending trend line. As long as the trend line holds, the temporarily bullish structure of the 4-hour chart will not change. However, whether it can break through the 95500 - 96500 high points is crucial for the continuation of Bitcoin's upward space; if it cannot break through, it may continue to oscillate until the weekly close. From a larger cyclical structure, the current price steadily rises, with each upward movement accompanied by slight technical adjustments, where pullbacks accumulate strength for the next rise, and the rebound momentum gradually exceeds the retracement force, indicating an overall strengthening trend in the market. In this environment, the smaller the retracement, the greater the subsequent upward space and possibility, providing a good entry reference for investors to actively position long orders during pullbacks.
The market for Ethereum is also quite critical, having rebounded after touching a low of 1793, with a high reaching around 1832. In the short term, it is difficult for Ethereum bulls to form a sustained upward momentum, and it is expected that a period of consolidation is needed before new bullish strength can be released. Analyzing the four-hour candlestick chart, although there was some bullish performance early in the morning, the previous losses have not been fully recovered. As bearish momentum gradually weakens, the downward pressure on prices has significantly eased, and the entry of bullish funds has somewhat restrained the price from continuing to decline along the lower Bollinger Band. However, the price is still under pressure from the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and how to break through the middle band is key for further upward movement of the bulls. Given the current market situation, it is expected that after entering the Asian trading session, the Ethereum market will mainly experience oscillation and consolidation rather than sustained one-sided increases, and investors need to flexibly adjust their trading strategies according to market changes.