Tonight, the US stock market is expected to gap down opening by at least 4%. Will it trigger a circuit breaker tonight? Trump is forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier. I estimate that Trump is going to miscalculate. After various countries retaliated in the tariff war, Powell is worried about inflation in the US. It will be tough to cut rates even in June. UBS believes the US will cut rates 4 times this year, while Morgan Stanley thinks there won't be any cuts this year. I believe the Federal Reserve will not comply with Trump and won't cut rates easily; in the end, it will be Trump himself who has to back down. To divert the protests of the American people, I think Trump will sacrifice Musk, letting Musk step down from the Department of Government Efficiency, allowing Musk to return to his own company, with TSL rebounding, to see if it can somewhat pump up the US tech stocks. Additionally, Trump shifts the tariff conflict onto Musk, and the Department of Government Efficiency announces the end of its mission. This alleviates the dissatisfaction of the Democrats, thereby ending the protests driven by the Democrats. However, this is just a superficial fix; the global economic slowdown has become a foregone conclusion, and trading is tough this year, making stock trading difficult as well. Let's wait for stimulus policies in the second half of the year.