Trump’s final ultimatum on 4/6: “If you don’t open the Strait of Hormuz, we’ll blow up power plants and oil wells.” Iran fires back: “U.S. forces landing on the island will have no way back.”

Trump sets an April 6 deadline, threatening to destroy all of Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Khark Island; Iran’s parliament also passes a Hormuz Strait toll bill via the Hormuz Strait at the same time, and some vessels have already been charged a $2 million toll per ship. About 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas transport passes through the strait, and both sides’ hardline postures are pushing a diplomatic standoff toward the core of the energy market.
(Background: Trump: He is negotiating with Iran’s “new government.” If the Hormuz Strait is not reopened, he will completely destroy Iran’s oil fields and power grid.)
(Background add-on: NYT: Hundreds of U.S. special operations forces troops have already arrived in the Middle East, and the SEAL Team will lead the advance to seize Iran’s nuclear facilities.)

Table of Contents

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• Khark Island: the export chokepoint for 90% of Iran’s crude oil
• Hormuz tolls: 14 days from threat to legislation
• Negotiation room and each side’s cards
• Cold-blooded view: oil prices are the real ticking time bomb

On March 30, Trump said on social media that if no agreement is reached in the short term, and the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “opened,” the U.S. will “completely destroy all of Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Khark Island, and possibly all desalination plants.” He had previously announced a 10-day pause in strikes against Iran’s energy facilities, with the grace period ending at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on April 6. White House press secretary Leavitt confirmed that Trump wants to reach an agreement before that deadline.

Negotiations have not stalled. Trump says progress has been made between the U.S. and Iran, but according to CNN, Iran’s side believes the 15-point plan proposed by the U.S. is “excessive and unreasonable.” The two sides’ public positions still remain quite far apart.

Khark Island: the export chokepoint for 90% of Iran’s crude oil

Khark Island is located in the northwest part of the Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers from Iran’s coast. It covers an area of roughly 6×3 kilometers and accounts for 90% of Iran’s crude oil export volume. This number explains why Trump lists it as a target of threats—and why Iran’s first vice president, Areif, is so direct in his wording. He warned that Trump can decide whether to send troops to Khark Island, but “whether troops can be withdrawn from there will not be controlled by the Americans, because no one can come back alive from hell.”

CNN’s analysis notes that Iran has added air-defense facilities and military personnel on Khark Island in recent weeks. Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf also said directly that Iran’s armed forces are “waiting for U.S. forces to step onto the ground, and then make them burn.” This is not diplomatic phrasing—it is more like a public declaration of military readiness.

At the same time, according to Axios, the U.S. Department of Defense is preparing to send about 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. Both sides are making preparations for the worst.

Hormuz tolls: 14 days from threat to legislation

Iran’s parliament’s National Security Committee began drafting the bill on March 26, and on March 30 it formally passed the Hormuz Strait toll plan. From the motion to passage, it took less than two weeks.

The bill’s core provisions include implementing a toll collection system through Iran’s Rial, banning the passage of ships from the United States and Israel, banning the passage of ships that participate in sanctions against Iran, and authorizing Iran and Oman to jointly establish the relevant legal framework. Some ships have already been charged a toll of $2 million per ship, showing that Iran is not just passing legislation on paper.

The Hormuz Strait carries about 20% of global oil and natural gas transport. Once this waterway is effectively controlled, the impact will not be limited to the United States or Israel, but will affect the entire energy supply chain across Asia—including China, Japan, South Korea, and India.

Negotiation room and each side’s cards

Structurally, both sides have reasons they do not want to fight for real, and they also have pressures that prevent them from showing weakness.

Trump’s problem is that destroying Khark Island is technically feasible, but the consequences are hard to control: oil prices spiking, Iran’s retaliation, regional allies under strain, and international-law disputes in the absence of United Nations authorization. The April 6 deadline itself is like tying both hands—if nothing is done, credibility is damaged; if they really take action, the consequences are on them.

Iran’s problem is that once Khark Island is destroyed, its fiscal income is cut off directly. Iran’s current ability to withstand economic pressure—its foreign exchange reserves and the strain from sanctions—is not strong enough to sustain a long war. Areif’s “hell” rhetoric is very tough, but the historical fact that Iran’s GDP shrank by nearly 14% after sanctions in 2018 to 2019 shows that the question of who pays the cost is not ambiguous.

Cold-blooded view: oil prices are the real ticking time bomb

The market’s pricing clearly has not yet fully absorbed a scenario in which Khark Island is attacked. If tensions escalate after the April 6 deadline passes, the crude oil market’s reaction will be far faster than the headlines of geopolitical news.

But one condition needs to be confirmed: the Hormuz toll bill passed by Iran’s parliament has not yet become formal law and still needs approval by the Guardian Council, which is approved by Supreme Leader Khamenei. This process could be the final buffer zone for negotiations, or it could be deliberately accelerated—depending on the direction of talks in the coming days.

Before April 6, any phone call from either side, or any miscalculation, would change the answer to this math problem.