$15.1 billion in crypto options expire today: Bitcoin and Ethereum may face a significant volatility window.

Gate News reports that the largest-scale cryptocurrency options settlement in the first quarter of 2026 is approaching, with approximately $15.15 billion in nominal value of options for Bitcoin and Ethereum set to expire on Friday at 08:00 UTC. This event will liquidate nearly 40% of the open contracts and is seen as a crucial point for a short-term market structure reset.

Data shows that the size of Bitcoin options is about $13.03 billion, while Ethereum stands at about $2.12 billion, with both having a put/call ratio of 0.57, indicating that market sentiment is cautious but bullish positions still hold an advantage. Notably, the current price of Bitcoin is around $68,685, below the maximum pain point of $74,000; Ethereum is about $2,057, also below the critical level of $2,250. This deviation could trigger a “reversion effect” before the settlement.

Greeks.live points out that this quarterly settlement is one of the largest of the year, and market makers may drive price volatility through dynamic hedging. Meanwhile, institutional fund flows present mixed signals. Block trade data shows that some investors have closed near-month contracts and shifted towards out-of-the-money call options for June and September, reflecting expectations for a mid-term market recovery.

At the structural level, the number of open call options for Ethereum still exceeds that of put options, but in short-term trading, the volume of put options is dominant, reflecting a rising demand for risk hedging as the settlement phase approaches. At the same time, implied volatility (IV) remains elevated before expiration, but analysts generally believe that a noticeable decline may occur after the settlement, with option sellers currently in a relatively advantageous position.

The market also needs to pay attention to the impact of theta decay on short-term call options and the potential volatility release post-settlement. Historical data shows that price volatility tends to be more active in the 3 to 7 days following large-scale quarterly options expirations.

As a considerable amount of open contracts is set to disappear, the current derivative structure suppressing the market may be lifted. The price performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum before settlement will become an important signal for determining the trend in the next phase.