XRP holders face a risk of losing $50 billion due to trading prices below $1.4

XRP currently trades at $1.37, down 63% from its multi-year high of $3.66 reached in July 2025. This means many XRP holders are facing significant unrealized losses, highlighting the risks present in the cryptocurrency market amid a prolonged downtrend.

Over 60% of XRP’s circulating supply is in loss

The XRP/USD trading pair is currently 28% below its opening price of $1.87 at the start of 2025, continuing its decline after ending last year with an 11.6% loss. This sustained weakness has pushed most of XRP’s supply into loss.

At the time of writing, with a trading price of $1.37, approximately 36.8 billion XRP — equivalent to $50.8 billion in unrealized losses — are held in a losing position. This accounts for over 60% of the total circulating supply, according to data from Glassnode.

Total XRP supply in loss | Source: Glassnode

Additionally, XRP’s spot price is currently below the average purchase price of investors, which is $1.44. This indicates that long-term holders are under increasing pressure.

Average cost basis of XRP holders | Source: Glassnode

Not only individual investors, but also those involved in XRP spot ETF funds are gradually losing interest. According to data from SoSoValue, these investment products have experienced outflows for two consecutive days, totaling $22.8 million. Notably, last Friday saw a net outflow of $16.2 million — the highest since January 29, when outflows reached $93 million.

XRP spot ETF flow chart | Source: SoSoValue

Risk aversion is further evidenced by global investment products related to XRP recording over $30 million in net outflows during the week ending March 6.

Key XRP price levels below $1.40

The XRP/USD pair is currently trading within a narrow range, with resistance at $1.40 and a critical support at $1.30. This is a level that buyers need to defend to prevent further significant declines.

The price is now testing the bottom of this range, as shown in the chart below. CryptoPulse analysts comment:

“If buying pressure is strong enough at the current level, XRP could rebound to the top of the range. However, if this support is broken, the price structure will change, and it’s likely that the price will continue to fall to lower levels.”

A notable zone lies between $1.30 and the local bottom of $1.27 set on February 28. If this level cannot hold, the next target could be the $1.13 low on February 6 — coinciding with the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Daily XRP/USD chart | Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Conversely, on the bullish side, buyers are attempting to turn the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) into support at $1.40. Data from Glassnode on realized price distribution of UTXO (URPD) — showing the average purchase price of XRP — indicates a key level at the 200-week SMA, where investors bought in at $1.28 billion XRP.

XRP URPD (Realized Price Distribution): | Source: Glassnode

According to a report from Coinphoton, if the support at $1.40 holds, XRP could recover to $1.60 and even reach $1.95. However, this depends on whether buyers can sustain momentum amid increasing selling pressure.