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Traders No Longer Betting on Rate Cuts and Are Even Hedging Against Hikes—How Will the Crypto Market Reprice?

Traders No Longer Betting on Rate Cuts and Are Even Hedging Against Hikes—How Will the Crypto Market Reprice?

After the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, market expectations shifted dramatically. Traders not only abandoned bets on rate cuts in 2026, but also began hedging against the risk of rate hikes. This article explores the structural changes at play and their deeper implications for the crypto market.

Blog Team2026-03-20

Polymarket FOMC Data Signals No Rate Change: How Prediction Markets Uncover Macro Consensus Ahead of Time

Polymarket FOMC Data Signals No Rate Change: How Prediction Markets Uncover Macro Consensus Ahead of Time

Polymarket data shows a greater than 99% probability that the FOMC will hold interest rates steady. This article analyzes capital flows and major bets in prediction markets to explore how Polymarket reveals broader macro sentiment—and examines its potential impact on the crypto market.

Blog Team2026-03-17

Polymarket Emerges as a Macro Indicator: Oil Prices and the US Dollar Index Move in Tandem with the Crypto Market

Polymarket Emerges as a Macro Indicator: Oil Prices and the US Dollar Index Move in Tandem with the Crypto Market

Polymarket Bets on Prolonged US-Iran Tensions, Trading Volume Hits Record High. How Data Leads Traditional Markets in Influencing Oil Prices, the US Dollar Index, and Reshapes the Macro Trading Logic for Crypto Assets.

Blog Team2026-03-13

Bitcoin Bear Market Divides Analysts: Institutions Warn of Potential 30% Drop as Most Polymarket Bets Predict BTC Falling Below $50,000

Bitcoin Bear Market Divides Analysts: Institutions Warn of Potential 30% Drop as Most Polymarket Bets Predict BTC Falling Below $50,000

ZX Squared Capital predicts that BTC could drop another 30%, falling below $50,000, while Bernstein is optimistic that Bitcoin will find support around the $60,000 range. This article analyzes six key indicators—including market cycles, ETF inflows, and the Fear Index—to provide a multidimensional forecast for the potential bottom range of Bitcoin’s bear market in 2026.

Blog Team2026-03-11

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Polymarket Bets on Oil Surpassing $100? Unpacking the Trading Logic Behind the Hormuz Crisis in Prediction Markets

Polymarket Bets on Oil Surpassing $100? Unpacking the Trading Logic Behind the Hormuz Crisis in Prediction Markets

Polymarket Sees Surge in "Oil Bets" as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Takes Center Stage This article provides an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical drivers, market impact, and potential risks behind this trend, offering insights into how crypto prediction markets are responding to this emerging variable.

Blog Team2026-03-10

The Prediction Market Heats Up Again: Polymarket Insider Addresses Bet on Middle East Conflict as Regulatory Landscape Clarifies

The Prediction Market Heats Up Again: Polymarket Insider Addresses Bet on Middle East Conflict as Regulatory Landscape Clarifies

On the eve of the Middle East conflict, six Polymarket accounts made precise bets, earning $1.2 million and sparking controversy over insider trading. As regulatory pressure intensifies, prediction markets find themselves at a pivotal crossroads, facing new compliance challenges.

Blog Team2026-03-04

Entered 71 Minutes Before the Airstrike and Made $1.2 Million: A Triumph of On-Chain Data Analysis or Unstoppable Insider Trading?

Entered 71 Minutes Before the Airstrike and Made $1.2 Million: A Triumph of On-Chain Data Analysis or Unstoppable Insider Trading?

Seventy-one minutes before the Iranian airstrike, six accounts made precise bets, earning $1.2 million in profit. Drawing on on-chain data, this article objectively unpacks the suspicions of insider trading, the regulatory tug-of-war, and the structural challenges facing prediction markets.

Blog Team2026-03-02

Are Prediction Markets Facing Insider Trading Scandals? Blockchain Transparency Under Scrutiny

Are Prediction Markets Facing Insider Trading Scandals? Blockchain Transparency Under Scrutiny

Prediction markets have seen a surge in highly accurate bets, raising concerns about insider trading. While on-chain data offers transparency, it cannot prove innocence and often becomes evidence fueling controversy. This article unpacks the sequence of events and examines the broader impact on the industry.

Blog Team2026-03-02

A Teaser Sparks $27 Million in Bets: Inside Trading and Market Trends Uncovered by ZachXBT’s Investigation

A Teaser Sparks $27 Million in Bets: Inside Trading and Market Trends Uncovered by ZachXBT’s Investigation

On-chain investigator ZachXBT has accused an Axiom employee of insider trading, sparking over $27 million in bets on prediction markets. This article reconstructs the timeline of events, breaks down the data and public sentiment, and examines how the announcement of the investigation itself has become a new variable in the market.

Blog Team2026-02-27