1.21 Afternoon Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading Suggestions and Directions From the current market situation, the 4-hour timeframe shows that after the rebound near the previous low of around 87,780, the bullish investment temporarily pushed the price to around 90,000 but failed to stabilize. The price then retraced and is now oscillating around 89,500, with the three moving averages continuing to decline. In the short term, the market is still dominated by bearish sentiment. Technical momentum indicators show a slight upward trend. Future movements should focus on whether resistance levels can be effectively broken. On the 1-hour timeframe, the price broke above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands but faced resistance and retraced, and it has been operating below the middle band throughout. There is a short-term need for technical correction. Coupled with the relatively small fluctuations during the recent white session, the afternoon trading strategy should continue with the midday approach. If Bitcoin retraces to above the 90,000 level, consider going long; otherwise, if it breaks below 89,000, continue to focus on short positions. #比特币 #以太坊

Continue shorting the ETH/BTC exchange rate pair

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 "Gold and silver have no top, Bitcoin has no bottom"—Xiao Caishen analyzes why Bitcoin is gradually drifting away from gold. Once upon a time, Bitcoin, with its scarcity (21 million) and ability to be exchanged for fiat currency, was called "digital gold." The phrase "Bitcoin gold, Ethereum silver" also gained popularity in the crypto community. Whenever regional wars or economic crises occurred, and risk assets like the US dollar and stocks plummeted, Bitcoin always managed to stand apart from gold—rising instead of falling. However, today we are disappointed to find that in this bull market for gold and silver, gold prices are soaring and hitting new highs, while crypto prices are crashing and bottomless. So, what has caused Bitcoin and gold prices to diverge? 1. Fundamental Cause: Shift in Bitcoin’s Positioning—From "Digital Gold" to a High-Risk Asset (1) Institutional Capital Withdrawal and the Bankruptcy of the "Digital Gold" Narrative Bitcoin’s decline primarily stems from a large-scale withdrawal of institutional funds. Data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a total outflow of about $4.3 billion in the last two months of 2025, with approximately $500 million net outflow just this week. This reversal of capital flow indicates that institutional investors’ attitude toward cryptocurrencies has shifted from active allocation to cautious reduction. Unlike retail investors’ emotional trading, institutional decisions are more forward-looking. Their large-scale withdrawal reflects professional investors’ concerns about the future of the crypto market. More importantly, the "digital gold" narrative for Bitcoin has been discredited. During the market volatility of 2025, Bitcoin failed to demonstrate the stability typical of traditional safe-haven assets and instead showed a significant increase in correlation with high-risk assets. When global risk appetite declines, Bitcoin becomes one of the first assets investors sell off, contrasting sharply with gold’s safe-haven properties. The title of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is more of a marketing slogan than a reality, with its price fluctuations showing random jumps in relation to the VIX index. (2) The "Roller Coaster Paradox" of Bitcoin: High Volatility and Speculative Nature Bitcoin is like a roller coaster in an amusement park—although its designers claim its track is based on precise algorithms, the actual experience for riders is unpredictable. Bitcoin’s high volatility and speculative nature make it suitable only for investors with extremely high risk tolerance. Investors participating in Bitcoin trading should strictly control their positions, avoid high leverage, and be alert to risks from regulatory changes. The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin was exposed as a fatal flaw during the crash in March 2025: with a total market cap of less than $1 trillion, it cannot support a flood of institutional funds. Regulatory changes can instantly alter its trajectory. Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, which synchronized with tech stocks, did not show any safe-haven properties. (3) The Contradiction Between Financialization and Decentralization: Bitcoin’s Achilles’ Heel Bitcoin’s decline reveals a long-avoided fact: financialization is not a neutral process; it can reverse the decentralization. The true value foundation of virtual currencies was once the "inaccessibility" rather than the "chain"—not relying on sovereign markets for safe-haven purposes. However, to attract institutional funds, Bitcoin must accept custody, regulation, compliance, and financialized pricing. Once this step is taken, it can never again be an outside-the-system safe-haven asset. This is an irreversible choice. Institutional funds require risk weighting, compliance boundaries, clearing responsibilities, and asset freezing capabilities, which true decentralized assets do not provide. The "advancement" of Bitcoin has, paradoxically, become its weakness. 2. Technical Level: Gold Bull Market vs. Bitcoin Bear Market Every market has its own cycle and规律. Currently, gold is in a bull market, which is well established and proven by results. Silver, similar to Litecoin in 2013, has risen due to its relatively small market cap and scarcity, somewhat akin to gold. In contrast, Bitcoin, as previously mentioned, entered a bear market after breaking below the 60-week moving average last November. The current bear market’s second wave of rebound did not even reach the 100,000 USD mark, which is the dividing line between bull and bear markets, and ended roughly around 98,000 USD. This indicates the strength of the bearish forces. The saying "a bull market does not speak of a top, a bear market does not speak of a bottom" reflects the different cycles of the two markets, leading to gold and Bitcoin prices diverging and drifting apart. 3. Capital Level: The Bloodsucking of Gold and Silver Markets Worsens the Crypto Crisis Why hasn’t gold driven Bitcoin prices up? An important reason is that both compete for capital within the market. Currently, gold’s market cap is about $32 trillion, silver’s is around $5 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market cap is between $1.74 trillion and $1.95 trillion. Moving such a large market requires trillions of dollars. Under the slow US rate cuts, Japan’s rate hikes, and the tight global liquidity environment, creating a legendary gold bull market inevitably drains funds from other markets, including Bitcoin. The "buying the dip" psychology among investors further accelerates capital outflows from weaker crypto markets into gold and silver. Recently, mainstream crypto exchanges have launched gold and silver contract trading, which also indirectly confirms this trend. Therefore, it is not surprising that the gold market and the Bitcoin market are currently experiencing "ice and fire" conditions.