U.S. Conference Board: Leading indicators decline for the second consecutive month; growth expected to slow from the end of the year to early next year

According to a report by Jinse Finance, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager and Head of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, stated that the US Leading Economic Index declined again in September, marking the second consecutive month of decline. The overall contraction of the index was primarily driven by weakened consumer and business expectations. The main components dragging down the index include consumer expectations, the ISM new orders index, new orders for manufactured consumer goods and raw materials, initial jobless claims, and the yield curve. However, some components made positive contributions, including stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. The trend in the index suggests that US economic activity will slow from the end of 2025 to early 2026. Overall, economic growth remains fragile and uneven, with businesses facing the dual challenges of tariff policy adjustments and weakening consumer momentum. US GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025 and slow further to 1.5% in 2026.