Huatai Securities: Prevê-se que o Federal Reserve pause os cortes de juros de janeiro a maio, e após a posse do novo presidente do Federal Reserve, haverá 1-2 cortes de juros.

Deep Tide TechFlow News: On January 10, according to Golden Ten Data reporting, Huatai Securities research report states that US non-farm payroll increased by 50,000 in December, below Bloomberg consensus expectations of 70,000, with cumulative downward revisions of 76,000 for October-November. Although the unemployment rate declined somewhat, the substantial downward revisions in the preceding two months have brought the private sector non-farm payroll three-month average down to a low of 29,000, with the structure further becoming “unbalanced”. Looking ahead, we maintain our assessment that the employment market will gradually improve in the future, focusing on the “temperature gap” between economic growth and employment; We expect the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts from January to May, and cut rates 1-2 times after the new Federal Reserve chair takes office. December non-farm payroll additions fell short of expectations and concentrated in a handful of sectors: from the employment diffusion index perspective, December showed a slight decline relative to November. Considering that recent initial claims have mostly beaten expectations, layoff numbers have declined somewhat, and the leading indicator NFIB business hiring intentions continue to improve, we still expect US non-farm payroll to rebound subsequently. Focus on the “temperature gap” between US economic growth and the employment market. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, while the employment data is somewhat weak, it has not continued to deteriorate. We expect the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts at the January meeting, emphasizing observation of subsequent data before making decisions. Therefore, we expect the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts from January to May, and cut rates 1-2 times after the new Federal Reserve chair takes office.