MatthewDixon

Chart of the day #XAU/#BTC
It shows how many #Bitcoin it takes to buy #gold
If the line goes down $BTC is outperforming $gold
If the line goes up Gold is outperforming BTC
Clearly the long-term trend is DOWN from 2011 to now
Gold massively underperformed BTC
However, each cycle shows a bounce in gold vs BTC
Then a weaker rally each time
First bounce: +190%
Next: +23%
Next: +2.7%
This is critical imo
Every gold outperformance vs BTC is getting weaker with the chart is showing
Lower highs & flattening curve
With each rally getting smaller the trend slope is flattening from steep to almost flat

#XAU #Gold is still in a major uptrend
Short-term = cooling / sideways
Long-term = still structurally bullish
However, caution is warranted short term as the consolidation may continue to play out with the Macroeconomic and Geopolitical situation is uncertain

Thats a sharp sell off last night from a local double top on #BTC
We will get more from longer term $BTC later today but for now, the impulsive look of this move down does give be cause to focus, as I know we also have bearish divergence in place on the Daily chart.

Scrolling around I found this chart which certainly looks ominous.
Also I note a few Central Bank Heads stating that markets are overdue a correction.
We can’t fight the prevailing trend but we should be cautious

LONG TERM #ETH chart.
From the start we see a clean 5 wave movement to the first peak of the large double top.
We then have ABC correction down where C=A precisely.
This is followed by ABC higher to the 2nd double top peak (with Bearish Divergence)
The following move down to today seems incomplete.
In the later $ETH chart we will focus on this big leg down using a shorter timeframe to elucidate the internal EW count

Dashed red line target indicated for #SPX many months ago, now achieved
Wave 3 was precisely 2.618 x wave 1
The final 5th wave is itself broken into 5 waves and should be nearing completion
Bearish Divergence present
S&P500 and other stock #indices are flashing warning signs imo

We indicated the dashed red line target for #SPX many months ago (which we have now achieved)
wave 3 was precisely 2.618 x wave 1
The final 5th wave is itself broken into 5 waves and should be nearing completion.
S&P500 and other stock #indices are flashing warning signs imo

I was asked to post #WIF recently.
It appears to be in terminal decline and hopes for revival would depend on:
Meme cycle revival which could give high upside but has low probability in the current climate.
Triggers to watch for -
Volume returning
Meme sector rotates (#BONK/#PEPE type flows)
Break above $WIF 0.20
Then fast move to $0.30–0.50
If momentum builds even $0.60+ possible
BUT CHANCES ARE LOW imo

A LONG term view of #XAU shows some VERY INTERESTING FIB relationships.
Wave 3 and 5? precisely equal and both precisely #GoldenRatio 1.618 x wave 1
That would be unusual as you normally only get two FIB relationships in one cycle
We must therefore manage our risk very carefully as #GOLD may have peaked at the recent ATH

Devergences consistently showing the way (in advance) for #ETH
Highly likely we see another significant push down for $ETH which sadly means that there is likely no quick resolution for the geopolitical situations raging.

I have been calling for #BTC to tun lower from about $BTC 80k and we reached 79,500 which IS close enough BUT I would still PREFER a final little push higher to just surpass 80k (when I would jump in with short)
I tend to be more cautious when shorting and will not DCA but just take one small position if we achieve target

Updating #XAU
We can see that the proposed correction down is incomplete with the final C wave being made up of 5 waves in blue - wave 1 complete, a choppy overlapping wave 2, followed by wave 3 being EXACTLY 2.618 x wave 1, then wave 4 (showing perfect alternation with wave 2, and now working on final 5th wave down before higher again for #GOLD

Another substantial low may be on the cards for #XAU to complete a large wave 4 correction before higher to another new ATH.
Could the new ATH be drive by more Money Printing?
WHY is #GOLD not behaving as a solid "safe haven" in time of trouble?

This #BTC chart shows POTENTIAL Hidden Bearish Divergence forming (If RSO goes above 70)
This would support the case for a Bearish reversal from what appears to be a correction higher in the form of ABC

#BTC target in sight at the 100% extension of the A wave @ $BTC 80,500
IF we see a push above #RSI 70 level then we would have bearish divergence from the Jan 14th High.

THERE COULD BE TROUBLE AHEAD
#OIL appears to have completed a contracted flat correction, where -
Wave A moves against the main trend (initial pullback)
Wave B retraces upward but fails to make a strong new high
Wave C moves down again but does NOT break far below Wave A
OR WXY with the same outcome.
This means $OIL is likely headed to new highs with risk assets #BTC #Crypto etc moving in -ve correlation downwards!

THERE COULD BE TROUBLE AHEAD
#OIL appears to have completed a contracted flat correction, where -
Wave A moves against the main trend (initial pullback)
Wave B retraces upward but fails to make a strong new high
Wave C moves down again but does NOT break far below Wave A
This means $OIL is likely headed to new highs with risk assets #BTC #Crypto etc moving in -ve correlation downwards!