Arnau4Bet

Trump is concerned about the price of oil, knowing he could shoot himself in the foot, and is putting pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.
He says that if Iran does anything to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will attack "TWENTY TIMES HARDER" than it has so far.
Iran, for its part, says it will only open the strait to countries that expel the ambassadors of Israel and the US from their countries.

One of the most important banks in Asia has just published its three scenarios for the S&P 500 and markets.
🟢 The conflict does not escalate, oil stabilizes → markets rise.
🔴 Energy shock, military escalation, margin calls → sharp decline in markets.
🟡 No crash, no highs, constant rotation → downward drift.
The most likely according to Nomura Bank is the yellow scenario.

What’s happening with oil?
After reaching $120, the G7 announced the release of 400 million barrels to curb prices.
The result: a 20% drop, but it’s just a patch.
The US-Iran war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, and has halted production in Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran, creating a daily deficit of 20 million barrels.
That release would barely cover one month of global consumption.
Possible scenarios:
-If there is a ceasefire, prices will fall, but the inflationary impact will continue to pressure until it normalizes again.
-If not, the G7 will run out of

If this continues, Trump will lose the midterm.
Can he afford it or will we see PUT soon? 🤔👇

If oil prices surge, inflation surges.
If inflation surges, the Fed cannot lower interest rates or introduce market incentives.
If the Fed does not lower rates or introduce incentives, the market falls.
This is the current concern, and that's why we must pay close attention to what happens with oil, the major collateral effect of this war.
If oil prices rise, the markets will automatically fall.

The market doesn't care about the war. The only thing that matters to it is energy and oil.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the energy infrastructure has issues, uncertainty will persist. But once that is resolved, whether because Iran runs out of weapons or an agreement is reached, the markets will rise.
In the meantime, capital doesn't know where to go. Tech stocks are in a critical zone, and gold is behaving strangely. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is holding up better than almost everything else.
Capital is shifting somewhere. And for now, that place is Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been closing in the red for 6 consecutive months.
This had only happened once in history: from August 2018 to January 2019. What followed was a rise of over 300%.
History will not repeat itself, but it might rhyme.

The conflict in Iran could be bullish for Bitcoin.
Iran has become one of the countries that mine the most BTC thanks to its ultra-cheap and subsidized electricity.
It is estimated to control between 2% and 5% of the global hash rate.
Some estimates place its mining cost at around $1,300 per BTC. When the market is in the $60k–$70k range, that implies huge margins for those miners.
The consequence?
A large portion of that BTC is sold with very high profits, creating structural selling pressure on the market.
Here's the important part.
Iran's electrical grid is fragile and experiences frequent

Nobody knows if the pattern will hold, but this is very interesting.

A prolonged war in Iran is:
- Bearish for the dollar.
- Bearish for US indices.
- Very bullish for the arms industry and defensive stocks.
- Very bullish for gold/silver in the short term.
- Very bullish for BTC in the long term.
5% of the global BTC hash rate is Iranian.
They use their cheap electricity to mine BTC, paying $1300 to sell it at 50x.
If their power grid fails, a lot of selling pressure disappears.

Bitcoin at the most critical level of the entire drop.
Holding above 60-65k would be a good sign for a rebound.
Losing these levels and staying below would completely change the scenario. Maximum attention to the coming weeks.