Once again disappointed the world! The Fed refuses to cut interest rates, and the US dollar harvesting machine can't be stopped?

The Fed has once again disappointed the world.
Ahead of this month's interest rate meeting, lower-than-expected CPI data instantly ignited a long sentiment in the market. Many speculated in advance that the Fed would turn dovish, leading to a significant rally in the financial markets.
However, when the Federal Reserve finally lifted its veil of mystery, a bucket of cold water poured over the entire market, chilling it to the bone:
In addition to announcing another pause in rate hikes, the Fed has also adjusted the number of rate cuts for this year from 2 to 1, still maintaining its hawkish stance. Does the Fed want to postpone rate cuts again and not stop until it achieves its goal? In the difficult situation of the Fed, how long can it continue to hold on?
Today, let's discuss these issues. Writing is not easy, and likes, shares, and bookmarks are welcome.
Inflation is improving, but interest rate cuts are rejected!
In May, US CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged month-on-month, and lower than the expected value of 0.1%. There seems to be a sign of hope for the dissolution of inflation stickiness.
So after the release of the data, all three major U.S. stock markets opened higher, U.S. bond yields fell, the U.S. dollar index weakened, and global currency exchange rates collectively appreciated, everything seemed to be looking up.
But the Federal Reserve is still the elusive presence, just as the market expects it to turn dovish, the Fed quickly brings a huge "surprise".
Maintaining the interest rate this time is in line with market expectations, and the key lies in the dot plot:
The dot plot of the June interest rate meeting shows that the number of interest rate cuts this year has been adjusted to one. Among the 19 officials, 11 believe that there will be at most one interest rate cut this year, while the remaining 8 expect two interest rate cuts.
In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also rarely made any explanations for the dot plot, seemingly completely 'throwing in the towel'. The 'neutral interest rate' predicted by the Federal Reserve has also been raised from 2.56% to 2.8%, with lingering concerns about current inflation control.
In other words, although the May CPI data was lower than expected, the magnitude of its decline did not meet the expectations of the Federal Reserve, so the expectation of interest rate cut was once again postponed.
Of course, from the perspective of reverse reasoning, the Federal Reserve itself is a master of expectation management, in order to prevent asset prices from soaring and inflation from returning, it is reasonable to moderately suppress market expectations, prevent the market from being overly optimistic about rate cuts, and prevent market expectations from getting out of control.
And this is precisely the 'anti-human nature' of the Federal Reserve:
Whenever the market sentiment is high, there will always be someone to come forward and pour cold water, but when the market is in despair, the Fed may switch from hawkish to dovish, giving a sense of division.
Is one not a hero until he reaches the Great Wall?
As everyone may know, the US dollar, as the de facto global currency, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will have a significant impact on the global economy.
In the past few decades, the Federal Reserve has triggered a 'dollar tide' by adjusting its monetary policy, often harvesting the world and transferring its own crises.
However, the Fed's previously tried-and-true harvesting strategy has failed this time:
Despite the crazy rate hikes for more than two years, except for a few emerging economies, no "big fish" has been caught yet.
So this time the Fed's hawkish expectations, once again delaying rate cuts, actually has a deeper meaning behind it: not dead until reaching the Yellow River, in order to smoothly harvest the suckers, they are willing to continue to keep interest rates at historical highs and once again swing the sickle at the global economy.
On the one hand, maintaining high interest rates on the US dollar will continue to exert significant pressure on all non-US currencies and drive the US dollar higher.
For example, in the "Asian currency defense war" some time ago, many Asian currencies such as the yen, won, and rupee all experienced a significant decline, and the yen exchange rate has repeatedly refreshed its historic low in 34 years. On the other hand, the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which recovers global dollar liquidity, will directly lead to a reduction in funds in other markets, and even capital outflows, causing a sharp drop in domestic asset prices.
For example, in Vietnam, due to a large outflow of international capital, the stock market experienced a big dump, and the exchange rate depreciated wildly. Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc even publicly stated that Vietnam has fallen into an economic crisis.
However, when it comes down to it, the United States has always had the biggest goal of targeting the Eastern powers. But under our countermeasures, both sides have had their victories and losses, and the Federal Reserve's reaping has not been successful.
Now the Federal Reserve has once again postponed the interest rate cut, trying to launch a new round of harvesting. At this critical moment, we must be extremely vigilant.
How long can the Federal Reserve hold out as it is in a dilemma?
As early as the middle of last year, there were expectations in the market for the Fed to cut interest rates, especially by the end of last year, some people believed that the Fed would start a rate cut cycle as early as March of this year.
And the reason why the market expectations are relatively optimistic is actually very simple:
Interest rate cuts are not only a major boost for the global economy, but also almost a necessity for the United States. With the U.S. dollar interest rates remaining high and U.S. bond yields rising, this directly leads to an increase in U.S. fiscal interest expenses and a significant increase in debt service pressure.
Currently, the scale of US Treasury bonds has soared to nearly 35 trillion US dollars, with annual interest alone reaching trillions of dollars, accounting for nearly one-fourth of the US federal government's fiscal revenue.
In addition, the increasingly serious problem of the US fiscal deficit, coupled with the already pessimistic financial situation, has added to the pressure on the repayment of US debts, undoubtedly adding to the difficulties.
So in order to avoid the complete loss of control of the US debt, interest rate cuts have almost become a must for the Federal Reserve.
However, from what we can see at present, the Fed seems to have chosen another path:
Hoping for a successful harvest, then plundering the wealth of other countries, and shifting its own crisis.
Therefore, we need to be well-prepared, whether the Federal Reserve intends to continue harvesting to the end or is preparing for a 'sudden attack' to lower interest rates. We need to take preemptive measures. #BTC #BOME #SLERF #PIGCOIN #ETH #PEPE #ONDO #ATS #GT #SMILE #XRP