Last Friday, Coinbase stock price increased significantly, jumping 17% after they released earnings. I noticed this happened alongside better-than-expected US inflation data - consumer inflation dropped to 2.4% in January, the lowest in several months. The overall market was also green, so Bitcoin also rose to $68k and the crypto market cap hit $3.3 trillion. It's understandable that Coinbase shares jumped as well.

But I see something interesting behind this rally. Analysts remain very bullish - UBS set a target $265 (up 60% from now), Deutsche Bank $250. They say Coinbase has good diversification - with Deribit acquisition, USDC stablecoin business (whose revenue increased to )million from $364 million a year ago, plus they are starting to enter prediction markets and tokenized stocks. So they are no longer just a trading desk.

But from the chart, Coinbase's share price is still below all moving averages. There are indications of a bearish flag pattern forming. The main support is at $225 - if it breaks below that, it could fall further to $100. The problem is, trading volume still makes up the largest part of their revenue $140 (billion in 2025$4 , while subscription and services are only $2.82 billion. So if crypto remains quiet again, pressure could shift back to this stock.

I think this rally might be temporary. The recovery is driven by good inflation data and market sentiment, but the fundamentals still face pressure. Just watch if the crypto market quiets again, Coinbase's share price could fall back. Keep an eye on the support break at $140.