Is the hijacking of oil tankers just the beginning? The market is quietly pricing in the worst-case scenario

When you see oil tankers being intercepted and shipping disrupted, many people will say:
"Small matter, not a big deal."
But the market's logic is not "what is happening now,"
but "what might happen next."
The risk of the Strait of Hormuz, once recognized by the market, will enter the "risk premium" stage.
What does that mean?
Even if there is no actual blockade, oil prices will rise.
It's like insurance:
It's not that you've already had an incident, but that you might have one.
So, rising oil prices are not necessarily due to reduced supply,
but — uncertainty has become more expensive. #美伊谈判陷入僵局