April 24, 2026

Key Developments in the Financial Sector Main Theme:
The US-Iran Conflict Trajectory and Federal Reserve Policy Path Become Market Focuses

1️⃣ US-Iran Ceasefire Stalemate and Hormuz Strait Blockade

Event Details:
Trump announced an "indefinite extension" of the ceasefire agreement, with negotiations possibly resuming as early as Friday; but hardliners in Iran's parliament explicitly deny any change in plans, stating "the enemy is untrustworthy" and that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen. Iran's speaker of the parliament said they have used the ceasefire to "rearm," and the public demands to "pursue the victory."

Reasons to Watch:
The Strait of Hormuz controls about 20% of global oil transportation, and the ongoing blockade keeps industrial metals and energy prices high, making inflationary pressures hard to ease. This directly influences whether the Fed can restart rate cuts—falling energy prices are a necessary precondition for monetary easing.

2️⃣ FOMC Meeting on April 28-29: Rate Holdings Likely

Event Details:
CME "FedWatch" data shows a 100% probability (97-98%) of holding rates steady in April, with the federal funds rate remaining at 3.50%-3.75%. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan unanimously expect the meeting to keep rates unchanged.

Reasons to Watch:
The dot plot and forward guidance released after the meeting will reshape market expectations for rate cuts in 2026. If the Fed signals "patience on geopolitical risks," it could reinforce expectations of only one rate cut for the year, with profound impacts on global liquidity.

3️⃣ IMF Downgrades 2026 Global Growth to 3.1%, Warns of War Risks

Event Details:
On April 14, the IMF released the "World Economic Outlook," lowering the 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% (from previous estimates), with 2027 at only 3.2%, well below pre-pandemic averages. The Middle East conflict has caused output losses in conflict zones exceeding those from financial crises or severe natural disasters. If the conflict persists, the global economy could slip into recession.

Reasons to Watch:
This is the IMF's first explicit inclusion of geopolitical war as a core variable in macroeconomic models. The report projects that defense spending will increase by about 2.7 percentage points of GDP, fiscal deficits will worsen by 2.6 percentage points, and public debt will rise by 7 percentage points—indicating that global fiscal tightening pressures will gradually emerge post-conflict.

4️⃣ Diverging Positions Among Fed Officials

Event Details:
Fed Governor Christopher Waller (dovish) said, "If peace in the Middle East is achieved, I support rate cuts later this year"; other officials' views range from one to four rate cuts. The March dot plot shows a median expectation of only one cut, Goldman Sachs forecasts two, and futures markets are even pricing in no cuts for the entire year.

Reasons to Watch:
Policy disagreements reflect the Fed's current "stagflation dilemma"—a slowdown in growth coupled with sticky inflation. Energy prices (dependent on geopolitical developments) will be a key variable in breaking the deadlock. Attention is advised on Powell's speech after the April 29 meeting.

5️⃣ Goldman Sachs Lowers Rate Cut Expectations but Optimistic on Peace

Event Details:
Goldman Sachs' latest report states that if US-Iran peace negotiations make progress and oil prices ease, monetary policy "normalization" could resume; but the main risk remains the "extension or re-escalation" of the conflict. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of two rate cuts in 2026 (50 basis points), but acknowledges the timetable is highly uncertain.

Reasons to Watch:
Goldman Sachs characterizes the current situation as an "inflation shock" (driven by energy) rather than a traditional recession, meaning the Fed's priority is controlling inflation expectations rather than stimulating growth. Markets are already pricing in a "post-war scenario"; if negotiations break down, a new round of risk-off selling could ensue.

Executive Summary:
The core logical chain for the day is: US-Iran conflict → energy supply → sticky inflation → limited central bank policy space.
Focus on the guidance from the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and developments in US-Iran negotiations.

Information Sources: Xinhua Finance, IMF WEO, April 2026, TheStreet, CNBC, CME FedWatch, Crestwood Advisors, etc.