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Analyst: BTC recovery is fragile, Middle East situation may dominate market trends in 2026
ME News report, April 13 (UTC+8), Coin Bureau founder and crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin said that Bitcoin’s recovery currently looks fragile, and that geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures stemming from the Middle East war will affect market performance in the second quarter of 2026. Puckrin predicts that rate cuts may not happen until the third or fourth quarter at the earliest. He believes that in order for Bitcoin to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: geopolitical tensions easing, oil prices falling to around $80, and economic data remaining weak.
At present, Bitcoin is trading at about $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000 and trading below the 200-day moving average. Earlier, Bitcoin had broken above $73,000, but then pulled back after the collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations and after Trump announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, there are differing views within the Federal Reserve’s FOMC on rate cuts in 2026. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of holding interest rates unchanged at both of the next two meetings exceeds 98%. (Source: MLion)