Shouchuang Futures: Equipment startup further declines, PX futures prices remain in a relatively strong pattern

On the cost side, Trump delivered a speech stating that in the next two to three weeks, there will be extremely severe strikes on Iran. If no agreement is reached, strikes will target Iran’s power plants. Geopolitical conflicts further escalate, and international oil prices rebound strongly.
Regarding supply, Jinling Petrochemical’s 700k-ton PX unit plans to undergo maintenance starting mid-April for 55 days; Qingdao Lidong’s 1 million-ton unit will shut down for maintenance from late March to early May; CNOOC Huizhou’s 2.45 million-ton unit may reduce output in April; Guangdong Petrochemical’s load decreases in early April; South Korea’s JX’s 1 million-ton unit will shut down in early April, restart pending. This week, PX load in Asia and domestically continues to decline. As key shipping routes remain closed, crude oil supply is hindered, and there is still room for PX load reduction later, with some PX suppliers decreasing contractual deliveries.
On the demand side, raw material impacts are gradually spreading to downstream sectors, with increased PTA maintenance plans. Meanwhile, negative feedback from terminals is emerging, with polyester and weaving operations continuing to decline.
In summary, although demand is marginally weakening, the geopolitical situation has escalated again, leading to a sharp rebound in crude oil prices. The expectation of tightening PX supply remains strong. Cost increases and supply tightening, combined, are expected to keep PX futures prices relatively firm in the short term. Attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, crude oil price trends, and changes in upstream and downstream equipment. (First Capital Futures)