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So I’ve been scrolling through the BTC chart for three days and just realized that a death cross has formed. This is really bearish: the MA50 has just broken below the MA200. Looking at history, every time a Bitcoin death cross shows up in the previous bear cycles, the price keeps dropping sharply. In 2022 and 2018, after this pattern became real, it fell by about 52-57%.
Right now, BTC is around 78K, but if it drops 52% from the crossover level, it could reach the 36-40K area. I also noticed that the price is already below both moving averages, (50-day and 200-day), which usually indicates bearish conditions. Interestingly, the RSI is still in the neutral zone, so it’s not fully oversold yet.
The momentum from yesterday that pushed it up to 74K disappeared very quickly. It seems this Bitcoin death cross is really a warning sign for a deeper pullback. The 40K zone could become support next, but the most important thing is to manage risk and don’t FOMO. The market is at a critical point right now.