Gold price below $5,000 as investors wait on Fed guidance for clues

Pound, gold and oil prices in focus: commodity and currency check, 18 February 

Gold price below $5,000 as investors wait on Fed guidance for clues · Yahoo Finance UK

Pedro Goncalves · Finance Reporter, Yahoo Finance UK

Wed 18 February 2026 at 6:32 pm GMT+9 4 min read

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Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices remained below the $5,000 threshold on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting for further guidance on the outlook for US interest rates.

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4,941.10 +35.20 (+0.72%)

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Gold futures (GC=F) rose 0.9% to $4,949.60 a troy ounce, while spot prices were muted at $4,930.63 at the time of writing, after hitting $4,862 per ounce in the previous session, its lowest level in more than a week.

“Gold prices are taking support above $4,850 today… this is a technical bounce” after prices fell in the previous session on easing geopolitical tensions", Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities told Reuters. Investors are looking out for Fed’s January minutes, he added.

Markets are also focused on the US personal consumption expenditures report for December, due on Friday, which is expected to provide further clues on the direction of rates this year. Markets currently expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Non-yielding bullion typically benefits from lower interest rate environments.

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Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the central bank could approve “several more” rate cuts this year if inflation resumes its decline towards the 2% target.

However, Fed governor Michael Barr said another rate cut could come somewhere well down the road, citing ongoing risks to the US inflation outlook.

“I expect rallies to remain capped and bulls to support sell-offs, which should keep gold ranging between $4,700-$5,100 over the near term,” said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at StoneX.

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, although gains were capped as investors balanced tentative optimism over renewed US-Iran nuclear talks against the absence of a breakthrough that could ease concerns over supply risks.

Brent crude (BZ=F) futures rose 0.4% to $67.66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) advanced by the exact same 0.4% to $62.48 at the time of writing.

Attention focused on comments from US vice president JD Vance, who said a second round of negotiations with Iran had been productive “in some ways”, but that Tehran was “not yet willing” to engage on certain “red lines” set by president Donald Trump.

“Our primary interest here is we don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon,” the vice president said during an interview with Fox News.

**Read more: **UK inflation falls to lowest since March 2025

The Iranian delegation was led by foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, while the US team was headed by special envoy Steve Witkoff.

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Araghchi said there had been progress in Geneva, describing the atmosphere as “more constructive”.

“It was decided that both sides will work on the drafts of a potential agreement, and after exchanging the texts,” he said. “The timing of the next round of talks will be determined.”

The understanding does not mean a deal is imminent, Araghchi said.

The talks are being closely watched by energy markets because Iran is a major oil (BZ=F, CL=F) producer and sits along the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of global oil consumption passes each day.

Pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X)

Sterling was muted against its major peers on Wednesday as the latest UK inflation figures pave the way for an interest rate cut in March.

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1.3569 +0.0003 (+0.02%)

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The pound was steady against the dollar at $1.3563 and up 0.1% versus the euro, trading at €1.1456.

“The pound’s performance has flipped, from being the worst performer on Tuesday, it is now the most resilient currency in the G10 FX space this morning, as the higher-than-expected core and service rate of UK inflation was less dovish than expected,” analysts at XTB wrote.

“However, this does not disguise the fact that the pound is weakening as UK economic data deteriorates, and GBP is still the weakest currency in the G10 FX space so far this month.”

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The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, was up to 97.28.

“We’re seeing a bit of dollar strength in context of the FOMC minutes, durable goods, and maybe just squaring up some shorts ahead of that,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. “But I just feel like we’re in a bit of a holding pattern.”

In equities, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was higher on Wednesday morning, up 0.5% to 10,607 points.

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