Nine consecutive days of negative funding rates essentially indicate that market sentiment has been long-term bearish, and that short positions are crowded. After a push higher in the afternoon, the funding rate was directly brought back into positive territory—this behavior is more like a typical “short squeeze + sentiment recovery.”

Looking at the rhythm, the original expectation was to rebound and create a “second high,” but the market chose a more aggressive path and directly formed a double-top structure. Under these circumstances, setting a higher stop-loss in advance is actually a reasonable response to “unexpected volatility,” not a mistake.

From a larger-cycle perspective, the target associated with the weekly golden cross is 85,000; this logic is fine, but it’s unlikely to be achieved in one step. The more realistic path for now is still to repeatedly consolidate and range-trade, around 70k, shake out positions, and then make a directional choice. At least, the probability of going straight to realize gains from the high area within April is not large, and this assessment can remain.

As for the news side, to put it bluntly, it can only be treated as an auxiliary variable. In the short term, it may affect sentiment, but the core factor that determines price is always market structure and the distribution of positions—not the news itself.

The truly critical point right now is that short-position capital is already clearly crowded:
A large amount of short positions has accumulated in the 71k–74k range, and even many positions below 70k have not been liquidated—this forms a very typical structure.

Under this structure, price action often becomes quite extreme, and it completes the position/asset exchange through repeated tug-of-war. That is to say:

In the short term, what you are more likely to see is “sweeps back and forth,” just like the little-known fact diagram I mentioned earlier!!! #GatePreIPOs首发SpaceX $BTC