These past couple of days, I've been watching the mempool and seeing waves of stablecoin swaps. The volume isn't exaggerated, but the rhythm is very "urgent." Frankly, a lot of the de-pegging isn't because there's truly no money in the accounts; it's more that everyone starts to doubt simultaneously and wants to be the first to run. The transparency of reserves is also quite subtle: normally no one looks, but when something really happens, everyone flips through the reports to find "other assets" in the corners... by then, the sentiment has already built up.

If project teams had disclosed redemption channels, asset composition, and custody addresses early on, even if it was a bit ugly, the run might not have looked like a stampede. Anyway, I now find models that rely on subsidies for returns a bit sensitive. The kind of inflation + studio-generated output + coin price spiral seen in blockchain games ultimately resembles a small-scale run, just with a different shell. For now, I'll keep watching for any abnormal large inflows and outflows on-chain.