My recent conclusion is pretty timid: don’t think you can hold everything at once, and don’t try to prove yourself with contracts—first make your position small enough to “sleep well,” and then talk. Plainly put, I can’t hold spot because the moment a pullback hits, my brain starts fantasizing about going to zero; with contracts, I get liquidated because I treat “might” as “should,” and the second I add leverage, I get急.

Now my one-sentence, human version of position management is: first, work out the worst-case scenario clearly on a day-by-day basis—like the kind where even if you lose, it won’t affect your life—then enter the market; otherwise, even if the direction is right, the process can still wear a person out. There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rate-cut expectations, the U.S. Dollar Index, and risk assets all going crazy together. The more the macronarratives get flipped back and forth like this, the less I want to stubbornly force it—I’d rather move slower and leave myself some room… Anyway, I’m not here to be a hero.