#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈

U.S.-Iran Negotiation Outlook — No News Is the Worst News

After several days of U.S.-Iran talks for the weekend suddenly went silent, there is no news. It’s unclear whether there were no negotiations at all, or whether the talks failed to reach an agreement. Reports say the two sides were unable to reach any interim or framework agreement, with the core disagreements concentrated on three major structural issues:

1. Nuclear capability continuation rights‌: The U.S. requires Iran to permanently abandon uranium enrichment capabilities and hand over all approximately 800 kilograms of high-enriched uranium; Iran, on the other hand, insists on retaining technical sovereignty and is only willing to accept a five-year suspension period.

2. Sanctions relief sequence‌: Iran demands “unfreeze assets first, then limit nuclear matters,” while the U.S. insists on “give up nuclear first, then ease restrictions,” creating a deadlock over who should make concessions first.

3. Control of the Strait of Hormuz‌: The U.S. proposes a “joint management” plan, which Iran regards as a cession of sovereignty; Iran instead uses the strait as a strategic bargaining chip and implements a “approval + payment” passage mechanism, rather than keeping it open.

In any case, up to now, no news is the worst news. Originally, on Friday, the market collectively celebrated in anticipation that the war would end, as if a bull run had returned overnight. Now that there is suddenly no news, we can only estimate that the market will go back and forth from where it came. Below, let’s look ahead at how the financial markets may perform:

‌📌 Crude Oil: A higher opening next week is highly likely. In the long term, bearish; in the short term, bullish. You need to allocate futures and options and hedge.

‌📌 Gold: The value of strategic allocation increases, but it is under short-term pressure due to high inflation expectations. Looking at the long run, central bank gold purchases are still the “stabilizer.”

‌📌 Bitcoin: Still a risk asset, not a safe-haven tool. Allocation should be based on ETF fund flows. Next week, the outlook is mainly bearish.

‌📌 Stock Market: The resilience of technology stocks provides a buffer, but you need to be alert to systemic risks in the non-bank financial system.