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$RAVE This kind of cliff-like decline, with spot prices about three times higher than futures, indicates extreme market pessimism and panic collapse
- Futures are a leveraged market, more sensitive to expectations.
- Futures are pushed to very low levels → consensus expects further declines or even zero.
2. Spot liquidity dries up + cliff-like crash
- Spot drops 90% in one day: buying interest nearly disappears, and any sell causes a sharp plunge.
- Spot is still more expensive than futures, which means:
- Spot cannot be sold (deeply illiquid), can only list high prices and wait for death
- Futures can freely short/close positions, with prices dropping first to the “real panic price”