I just checked the Índice de Temporada de Altcoins, and it’s at 48, which means we’re in neutral territory. No clear altcoin season or absolute Bitcoin dominance, but rather a fragmented market where each asset does its own thing.

For those who don’t know, CoinMarketCap calculates this by looking at how the top 100 cryptocurrencies perform against Bitcoin over the past 90 days. If the index rises to 75 or higher, then yes—we do have an altcoin season with widespread gains. Below 25 is Bitcoin territory. But at 48, we’re in the gray zone.

Historically, when the index was above 90 in early 2021, it was madness: capital rotating aggressively into lower market-cap projects, DeFi exploding, NFTs everywhere. Now the situation is completely different. The market is more mature, there are Bitcoin ETFs that create steady demand, and altcoins need to do much more to gain ground.

What’s interesting is that neutral readings like this normally precede volatility. Capital is looking for direction. Some specific altcoins may be rising while others fall behind, but there’s no coordinated move. This means that if you’re a trader, you can’t just jump into altcoins at random expecting massive gains. You need to research which subsectors are gaining: infrastructure, Layer 1, DeFi, whatever.

What has me paying close attention is whether we’ll see a catalyst that decisively pushes the index to one side. Macroeconomic conditions could favor taking more risk in altcoins, but for now the market continues to wait for clearer signals. Meanwhile, weekly monitoring of this index remains the best way to understand whether the cycle is tilting in one direction or the other.