Why did gold not rise but instead fall during the war?

But I see #Strong Oil, Weak Gold
Here are a few perspectives to consider:
1. Inflation aspect:
U.S. March CPI slightly exceeded expectations: month-on-month +0.9%, year-on-year +3.3%. The key is energy—month-on-month directly +10.9%, gasoline even surged 21.2%. This reignited market expectations of a "second wave of inflation."
2. Market interest rates:
The market is still betting that the Federal Reserve will likely hold steady throughout 2026, and even by the end of the year, the chance of rate cuts is only about 30%.
This time, the market favors "dollar safe-haven" rather than gold. The dollar index remains at a one-week high, while gold continues to be under pressure, having retreated about 10% from the February high.
This also explains a phenomenon many find strange:
This round of geopolitical conflict has not boosted gold to strengthen again.
On the oil side, geopolitical tensions escalate:
The US-Iran talks break down, and the U.S. begins targeting Iranian ports and shipping, increasing risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers are actively rerouting, with Brent crude briefly reaching $103, and WTI climbing back above $104.
Although Saudi Arabia has restored east-west pipelines to 7 million barrels per day, which can offset some transportation issues, the market's risk premium for "Middle Eastern supply shocks" is still evident.
So, the current macro transmission logic is:
Middle East conflict → rising oil prices → increased inflation expectations → delayed rate cuts / dollar strengthening → gold under pressure
Summary: This round is not "safe-haven buying gold," but rather "inflation buying oil + safe-haven buying dollars."
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