Recently, after reading the Wintermute report, I feel like I’ve found the answer to the long-standing question, “Why don’t altcoins go up?”

Until now, it has been said that a four-year cycle has been working in the crypto asset market, but it seems that mechanism is fundamentally changing. Specifically, data shows that the average duration of the altcoin rising period in 2025 has been shortened to about 20 days. The previous year was 60 days, so it’s been cut to one-third.

This is not just a temporary slowdown—it suggests a change in the market structure itself. In the conventional cycle, after capital flows into Bitcoin, it then spreads into the entire altcoin market via Ethereum. This narrative-driven flow has created bull markets for up-and-coming projects.

But now, the reason that flow is no longer working is clear: ETFs and digital asset treasury vehicles have evolved into a “closed garden” that limits what can be invested in. In other words, capital is concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some large-cap coins, while capital inflows into small- and mid-size altcoins are not happening. Liquidity is being trapped in specific coins.

In addition, another major factor behind why altcoins aren’t going up is that individual investors’ interest has shifted toward stock-market themes such as AI and quantum computing. As a result, the situation continues where only a small number of large-cap coins keep absorbing new capital.

So what’s needed to break the situation where altcoins don’t rise? In Wintermute’s analysis, three scenarios are possible. The first is that investment products expand the range of assets they can invest in. In fact, ETF filings for Solana and XRP are moving forward, so this sign is already starting to appear. The second is that price increases in Bitcoin and Ethereum will ripple through the entire altcoin market. However, it’s unclear how much capital will genuinely flow into the altcoin market. The third is that individual investors’ interest will return from the stock market to the crypto asset market, but it’s pointed out that the likelihood of this happening is the lowest.

What matters is that predictions based on the traditional four-year cycle can no longer be relied on. We’re entering a phase where future market direction will require closely tracking the movement of liquidity and changes in investor sentiment. The phenomenon of altcoins not rising may indicate that the market itself has moved into a new stage—not just that it’s a bearish market.