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Reflections on public blockchains in 2026:
Thoughts on public chains in 2026:
This whole playbook—“controlling inflation + high interest rate to attract deposits + the defi trifecta + the founder’s dog meme + we have our own hyperliquid + crazy OTC sells to liquid fund”—no longer works.
This isn’t just a problem Monad and MegaETH need to deal with; it’s also a problem Rise, Fogo, and even N1 need to deal with. As for old public chains, it depends. Sei and Polygon still feel like they’re tinkering, but most have already given up.
The loyalty of projects incubated on day one of a public chain is still questionable, because within the industry, most of the founders who actually have options already have BNB Chain and Solana, and even Base, to choose from. Most projects deploying to a new chain are eyeing the public chain foundation’s money pouch. And once they raise capital with endorsements and get the first wave of launch users from the public chain community, founders have motivation: 1) build their own app chain to support valuations 2) switch to other chains to compete.
So much so that some founders have already stopped saying they’re part of an xx ecosystem, and instead say that xx chain is our “GTM Partner.”
That’s why ecosystem projects that are too weak are like helpless marionettes that can’t be lifted, and projects that are too strong are like Lü Bu betraying his sponsor.
The laissez-faire, neutral-style public chain building model has basically come to an end. The valuation model needs to be adjusted according to MEV revenue (here @LeePima teacher). Now, more public chains are about carrying controllability rather than possibility—under economic-system controllability, you build fintech.
The next public chains will have a centralized power structure: a top-down dev shop and CVC. The treasury’s main role will be doing m&a—crazy vertical mergers instead of nurturing the ecosystem. In other words, there won’t be a king maker like Solana anymore (cc. @mablejiang).
From this perspective, BNB Chain, Tempo, and Monad are moving in the same direction, it’s just the issues of different regional preferences and resource allocation.
The last question is: at this point, what model should we use to estimate FDV and then follow the hype? And skill sets are completely tailored to the growth manager, ops manager, and other roles aimed at selling coins and running a ring extraction economy. The old era’s tickets probably won’t get you on the new era’s ship.