S&P 500 Could Plummet 10% on U.S.-Iran War Risks, Warns JPMorgan

FomoAnxiety · 2026-03-09T14:13:03+00:00

JPMorgan's trading desk warns that the U.S.-Iran war could lead to higher oil prices and inflation, potentially causing a market correction. Head of Global Market Intelligence Andrew Tyler adopts a "tactically bearish" view amid rising oil costs and consumer pressures.

FomoAnxiety

2026-03-09 14:13:03

Abstract generation in progress

JPMorgan’s trading desk warned that the market may be underestimating the risks from the U.S.-Iran war, including surging oil prices that could push inflation higher. That could result in a correction, or a 10% drop from the peak, and send the S&P 500 (SPX) to 6,270 from the current price of 6,657.

Claim 70% Off TipRanks Premium

Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions
Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio’s potential

Andrew Tyler, the firm’s Head of Global Market Intelligence, switched his stance to “tactically bearish” on Monday, noting that investors are positioned neutrally with “a lack of extreme de-risking.”

Oil Spike Pressures Consumers as War Risks Persist

Oil prices climbed past $100 per barrel overnight and may continue rising depending on how long traffic to the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Meanwhile, the price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. has jumped by 48.1 cents over the past week to $3.478, threatening consumer spending and sentiment.

Despite the risk, Tyler noted that a “definitive off-ramp” to the war could reverse his bearish call and support risk-on assets due to the strength of the U.S. economy.

Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.