Macroeconomic Shift: Non-Farm Payroll Surprise and Middle East Conflict Reshape Market Dynamics

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.42 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 59%, or $1.42 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $312.8 billion, a 1.17% increase over the past 7 days, with USDT making up 58.81%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up slightly, with a few down. Over the past 7 days: BTC increased by 5.96%, ETH by 2.83%, SOL by 2.31%, RIVER by 71.07%, and BARD by 76.66%.

This week, net inflows into the US Bitcoin spot ETF totaled $568 million; net inflows into the US Ethereum spot ETF reached $23.1 million.

Market Forecast (March 9–15):

BTC: $65,000–75,000 ($65,000 is a key psychological and support level; if broken, it could decline further)

ETH: $1,900–2,180 (In extreme cases, it may test the previous low of $1,830)

SOL: $80–100 (SOL spot ETF has seen 23 consecutive days of institutional net inflows)

Currently, the RSI index is 44.46 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 13 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 45 (neutral, consistent with last week).

Unexpectedly weak employment data has sharply increased expectations of rate cuts: US non-farm payrolls for February fell far below expectations, marking the first negative growth since 2020. This report quickly boosted market bets on the Fed cutting rates within the year. In theory, rate cut expectations are positive for risk assets, offering a glimmer of liquidity improvement for the crypto market.

Simultaneously, fears of stagflation have emerged, putting the market in a dilemma: however, things are not that simple. Almost at the same time, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East caused international oil prices to surge, with Brent crude oil prices hitting a weekly record increase. The combination of shrinking employment, resilient wages, and soaring oil prices has sparked deep concerns about stagflation. Under this environment, Fed policies face a dilemma, and risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) initially reacted but then came under pressure due to economic outlook worries. After the non-farm payrolls report, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices dropped over 4%.

Overall, next week the market will enter a macro data digestion phase. The biggest risk is the continued escalation of stagflation fears, suppressing all risk assets; the biggest opportunity is that, once market sentiment stabilizes, the re-pricing of rate cut expectations could improve liquidity. SOL, due to its unique institutional fund inflows, may show relative strength.

Current Insights

Weekly Major Events

Bitcoin rebounds strongly, breaking $73,000

This week, the crypto market experienced a V-shaped reversal, with Bitcoin rebounding sharply from weekend lows and surpassing $73,000 on March 5, reaching a recent high. On March 4, Bitcoin even briefly broke above $71,000, triggering over 120,000 liquidations across the network.

Ethereum returns above $2,100, mainstream coins generally rise

As a market indicator, Bitcoin’s stabilization directly activated market liquidity. ETH rebounded nearly 8% this week, successfully returning above $2,100. Other major coins like BNB, XRP, and Solana also generally gained over 4%.

Geopolitical turmoil tests Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative

Last weekend’s escalation in Middle East tensions caused Bitcoin to plunge to $63,000. However, the market quickly recovered this week, even outperforming gold, which had fallen during the same period. This has led some traders to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical instability.

Institutional funds flood in, over $680 million net inflow in two days

Wall Street’s influence has become a key factor in this rebound. Data shows that between March 2 and 3, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $680 million. Precise accumulation in the $65,000–$67,000 range is seen as a critical support for the market rebound.

Trump calls for advancing crypto legislation, CFTC actively responds

On March 4, former US President Trump urged Congress to expedite the passage of crypto market structure legislation. Subsequently, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig responded that the “CLARITY Act” should be passed soon, and announced the upcoming launch of US perpetual futures linked to cryptocurrencies. These regulatory signals boosted market sentiment.

Macroeconomic data improves, supporting the crypto market

The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained above 50 for two consecutive months, indicating economic expansion. Analysts believe macroeconomic improvements generally enhance risk appetite, providing capital support for risk assets including Bitcoin and altcoins.

Public chain ecosystems advance: Polygon hard fork and Astar voting

Major public chains made progress this week. Polygon (MATIC) underwent a Lisovo hard fork upgrade on March 4. Astar Network (ASTR) launched a community vote on Tokenomics 3.0 on March 3. Additionally, Flare Networks delivered a keynote on XRP financial applications.

Market focus shifts to altcoins, but broad rally faces resistance

With Bitcoin stabilizing, discussions about altcoin season have heated up again. Some analysts point to technical signs of a breakout in altcoin market cap share. However, on-chain data shows about 38% of altcoins are still near historical lows, indicating weak market interest and potential supply overhang and liquidity shortages, posing obstacles to a broad rally.

Coinbase expands, opens stock trading to all US users

This week, Coinbase announced that it is opening stock trading to all US users and has partnered with Yahoo Finance, allowing users to research assets on Yahoo and switch to Coinbase for trading with one click. This marks Coinbase’s further move toward becoming a comprehensive financial platform.

Macroeconomic Data

March 4: US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the largest since November 2025, surpassing expectations of 50,000; previous: 22,000.

March 5: US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 totaled 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, slightly below expectations of 215,000.

March 6: US February unemployment rate was 4.4%, expected 4.3%, previous 4.3%.

March 6: According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is 3.3%; the chance of no change is 96.7%. The probability of holding rates steady until April is 86.4%, with a 13.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut and 0.4% for a 50 basis point cut.

ETF Flows

From March 2 to 6, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $568 million; as of March 6, Grayscale’s GBTC has outflows of $25.863 billion, with holdings of $10.652 billion; BlackRock’s IBIT holds $52.904 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $90.366 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $23.1 million.

Future Outlook

Industry Conferences

EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. EthCC is one of Europe’s largest and oldest annual Ethereum community events, focusing on technology and community development.

Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will take place from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.

TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will be held from April 29 to 30, 2026, in Dubai, UAE.

Key Events

March 11, 20:30: US releases February CPI (unadjusted) annual rate.

March 12, 20:30: US releases initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 (in ten-thousands).

March 13, 20:30: US releases January core PCE price index annual rate.

March 8, 15:00: North American daylight saving time begins, US stock markets open one hour earlier.

UK Financial Conduct Authority launches stablecoin investigation; deadline for written submissions is March 11, 2026.

Token Unlocks

Movement (MOVE): 161 million tokens unlock on March 9, valued at approximately $3.71 million, representing 5.18% of circulating supply.

Linea (LINEA): 137 million tokens unlock on March 10, valued at approximately $4.44 million, representing 5.62% of circulating supply.

Aptos (APT): 11.31 million tokens unlock on March 12, valued at approximately $11.28 million, representing 0.69% of circulating supply.

Starknet (STRK): 127 million tokens unlock on March 15, valued at approximately $5.08 million, representing 4.4% of circulating supply.

Sei (SEI): 55.14 million tokens unlock on March 15, valued at approximately $3.75 million, representing 1% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your trading. Through Weekly Insights and In-Depth Reports, we analyze market trends; with our exclusive segment “Hot Coins Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you via live streams to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that with warm companionship and professional guidance, more investors can navigate cycles and seize Web3’s value opportunities.