Confidential Report: Large-Scale U.S. Attacks "Unlikely" to Overthrow Tehran Regime

Investing.com — According to a classified assessment by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, a large-scale military attack led by the United States is “unlikely” to overthrow the Iranian government. The report was first detailed by The Washington Post, raising significant doubts about the Trump administration’s public claims that the current conflict could be resolved within four to six weeks.

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Reportedly, this intelligence assessment was completed just one week after the U.S.-Israel joint airstrike on February 28, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The assessment states that although Iran’s top leader was eliminated on the first day of hostilities, the state machinery remains resilient. It also describes the possibility of opposition groups, divided within Iran, seizing control of the country as “unlikely,” complicating the White House’s claims of a rapid transfer of power.

For global markets, the prospect of a prolonged conflict rather than a short-term intervention adds a new layer of risk to energy supplies. With disruptions already occurring in the Strait of Hormuz, this “quagmire” warning could keep oil prices under geopolitical premium.

Investors are currently watching whether the Trump administration will adjust its strategy based on these internal warnings or continue to pursue the “maximum pressure” policy in the absence of a clear exit path.

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