【Iran Crisis】Prediction market Polymarket makes accurate bets again; six mysterious accounts profit $1.2 million, involved in insider trading?

The news of the United States launching a military strike on Iran shocked the world, and some market participants quietly made precise bets beforehand, once again raising concerns about insider trading. According to blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps, six suspected related accounts on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket placed concentrated bets on “Yes” just hours before the U.S. airstrike on Iran, earning a total profit of about $1.2 million. Market analyst Mike Levin called for “answers, transparency, and oversight.”

“Precision Betting on ‘Iran Attack’”

Based on Bubblemaps’ analysis posted on social platform X, these six Polymarket accounts heavily bought “Yes” shares in the contract market “Will the U.S. attack Iran before February 28, 2026?” prior to the news being announced, and subsequently cashed out at $1 settlement for full profit.

One account bought over 560,000 shares of “Yes” at an average price of about 10.8 cents, ultimately earning nearly $560,000. Another account purchased nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents each, also achieving six-figure returns. Bubblemaps’ visualized network diagram shows that the fund flow paths among these six wallets are highly similar, indicating a clear connection.

Bubblemaps pointed out that all accounts were registered in February, with most wallets completing their first deposit within 24 hours before the attack. Additionally, aside from this bet, there are no other transaction records in their history. This pattern closely resembles typical insider trading behavior.

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Mystery account “Magamyman” bets on Iran and Trump’s advisor 71 minutes before news breaks, raising suspicion

Market observer Mike Levin further disclosed on social platform X that among the six accounts, a Polymarket account named “Magamyman” made a profit of $515,000 in a single day, with its first trade completed just 71 minutes before the related news was publicly disclosed.

Levin also noted that Donald Trump Jr., son of U.S. President Donald Trump, is a member of Polymarket’s advisory board, and his company invested tens of millions of dollars into the platform last year. Levin stated that prediction markets should never be used as tools to profit from pre-knowledge of military actions. He called for “answers, transparency, and oversight.”

Traders bet on Maduro’s arrest, profit $436,000, platform refuses payout

Coincidentally, before U.S. President Trump’s arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, traders also bet on an invasion of Venezuela on Polymarket. After the news of Maduro’s arrest was announced, traders made a profit of $436,000. However, Polymarket later announced it would refuse to pay out the related winnings.

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