Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Falling to $50,000 Before Recovery | US Crypto News

Lockridge Okoth

Thu, February 12, 2026 at 9:49 PM GMT+9 5 min read

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Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee as the crypto market may be heading into another turbulent stretch. Analysts are warning that more volatility could lie ahead as macro uncertainty builds and investor sentiment weakens, setting the stage for a potentially decisive moment before any meaningful recovery begins.

Crypto News of the Day: Standard Chartered Warns of Final Capitulation, Sees Bitcoin Falling to $50,000 Before Recovery

Standard Chartered is warning that crypto markets may face one final wave of selling pressure before staging a broader recovery. According to the bank, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 in the months ahead.

In a note to clients, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research, said the near-term outlook remains challenging amid intensifying macroeconomic headwinds and weakening ETF flows.

“I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months,” Kendrick wrote. “The macro backdrop is unlikely to provide support until we near Warsh taking over at the Fed.”

According to Kendrick, the current correction has further to run before markets find a durable bottom. On the downside, he expects:

“BTC to USD 50,000 or just below, ETH to USD 1,400.”

Despite the bearish short-term call, Kendrick framed these levels as strategic entry points rather than structural breakdowns.

“They will be buy levels, for end-of-year forecasts of $100,000 (BTC) and $4,000 (ETH). Take care out there.”

The revised projections mark a notable reduction from the bank’s previous targets of $150,000 for Bitcoin and $7,500 for Ethereum, reported in a recent US Crypto News publication.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Still, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive long-term view once the current drawdown plays out.

Macro Headwinds and ETF Outflows

Kendrick emphasized that macroeconomic conditions are weighing heavily on digital assets. While the US economy may be softening, markets are not pricing in imminent rate cuts.

“The macro risk backdrop is also becoming more challenging – the US economy may be softening, but markets expect no further rate cuts until Warsh takes over as Fed chair in June,” he said.

With liquidity support likely delayed, investor behavior is shifting. The Standard Chartered executive observes that holdings of digital asset ETFs have fallen (albeit in an orderly manner), and the average Bitcoin ETF holding is now down around 25%.

“Against this backdrop, we think ETF holders are more likely to sell, rather than buy the dip, for now.”

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The decline in ETF holdings is particularly significant given that spot Bitcoin ETFs were a key driver of inflows during the last rally. A sustained period of redemptions could amplify downside volatility if sentiment deteriorates further.

A More Resilient Market Structure with Recovery Path Into 2026

Despite forecasting further losses, Standard Chartered argues that the current sell-off differs materially from previous crypto downturns.

“Recent price action for digital assets has been challenging, to say the least. We expect further declines in the near term and are lowering our forecasts across the asset class. However, we expect prices to recover after hitting their lows in the next few months, and our long-term constructive view remains intact,” Kendrick said.

Importantly, he added that this sell-off has been less extreme than previous ones and has not seen the collapse of any digital asset platforms (as was the case in 2022). This, according to Kenrick, suggests that crypto as an asset class is maturing and becoming more resilient.

That structural resilience may ultimately support a stronger recovery phase once macro conditions stabilize and liquidity expectations shift.

Looking beyond the expected capitulation phase, Standard Chartered anticipates a rebound through the remainder of 2026.

“Once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026,” Kendrick said.

The bank now forecasts Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000 by year-end 2026, with other digital assets likely to “broadly follow the majors.”

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Standard Chartered projects the Bitcoin price falling to $50,000 before recovery. Such a move would constitute a 26% drop below current levels.

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

MicroStrategy plans to issue more perpetual preferred stock: What it means for MSTR.

Four signs that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bear market: How long could it last?

Elon Musk reveals X Money may launch soon, fueling crypto speculation.

Bitcoin whale accumulation resembles 2022 structure - Can it revive BTC price?

Solana long-term holder capitulation reaches a 3-year high as price nears losing $80.

A crypto lender has halted withdrawals: Is this another FTX moment?

XRP flashes historic rebound hint, but buying drops 85% — What's next for price?

Crypto market sentiment falls into extreme fear: What does it mean for investors?

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Read original story Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Falling to $50,000 Before Recovery | US Crypto News by Lockridge Okoth at beincrypto.com

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