Wedbush Downgrades The Trade Desk, Citing Market Overestimation of OpenAI Partnership Impact

Investing.com - Wedbush Securities analysts believe that The Trade Desk’s stock price has risen too much due to optimistic sentiment about a potential partnership with OpenAI. The firm downgraded the stock to underperform in a report to clients on Friday.

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Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese said that after reports suggested The Trade Desk might help monetize ad inventory related to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, the stock surged about 18%. As a result, the firm downgraded its rating from neutral.

Reese added that she “does not believe the rumored deal’s incremental value can justify the current stock price,” and she thinks the market has significantly overestimated the short-term financial impact of the partnership.

The firm acknowledged that, in the long term, this deal could have strategic importance, calling it “a key long-term strategic move to counteract AI search encroachment.”

However, Reese warned that the recent rally reflects a “narrative-driven ‘headline effect’” rather than fundamental economic factors.

According to Wedbush’s estimates, the partnership will generate relatively limited financial benefits. Their analysis predicts “incremental EBITDA of only $42 million by 2027,” while the nearly $2 billion increase in market value related to the news implies a “roughly 53x EBITDA valuation multiple.”

Revenue contribution also appears limited. Wedbush estimates that The Trade Desk could generate $31 million to $77 million in revenue in 2026 and $56 million to $140 million in 2027, accounting for only “1-4%” of the expected revenue base.

The firm also warns of long-term structural risks, including the possibility that OpenAI may eventually develop its own advertising platform, which could lead to disintermediation risks.

“As OpenAI matures, we expect it will inevitably build a proprietary internal DSP platform,” Wedbush stated.

Despite these concerns, the firm maintains a target price of $23 for the stock.

This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. For more information, please see our Terms of Use.

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