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I. Current Price and Status (Morning of 2026-03-07)

- BTC current price: around 70,500 USD (≈70,500 USDT)
- 24h slight decline ≈0.4%, bottoming out and rebounding, weak volatility
- Market: 70,500 is the intraday support/resistance boundary; daily bearish structure remains unchanged
- Linkage: ETH breaks down, BTC faces passive pressure, options expiration approaching on March 10

II. Key Support/Resistance (Core for Monitoring)

Support (Defensive lines for declines)

- First support: 70,000–70,500 (near current price, strong intraday support)
- Critical support: 69,000–69,500 (previous low + weekly support, breaking accelerates decline)
- Strong support: 68,000 level → 67,500–67,700 (mid-term defense)

Resistance (Pressure lines for rises)

- First resistance: 71,000–71,500 (intraday rebound resistance)
- Strong resistance: 72,000–73,000 (MA20 + previous support turned resistance)
- Critical resistance: 73,500–74,000 (rebound limit)

III. Two Scenarios (divided at 71,000)

Scenario A: Rebound fails to break 71,000 (more likely)

- Trend: Rebound to 70,800–71,000 encounters resistance and falls back, unable to stabilize
- Signal: Insufficient volume, selling pressure persists, daily bearish alignment
- Follow-up: Drop to 69,500 → 69,000 → 68,000; breaking 68,000 looks toward 67,500

Scenario B: Hold above 71,000 (less likely)

- Trend: Volume breakout above 71,000 and retest confirmation
- Signal: 4H bullish divergence, MACD golden cross, buying support
- Follow-up: Rebound to test 72,000–73,000; only if breaking 73,000 can a return to sideways range be expected

IV. Trading References (Current price 70,500)

Short-term (Intraday/4H)

- Short (priority)
- Entry: Resistance in 70,800–71,000 zone, short
- Stop-loss: Above 71,500
- Targets: 69,500 → 69,000 → 68,000
- Long (light position testing)
- Entry: Stabilization at 69,500–70,000, go long
- Stop-loss: Below 69,000
- Targets: 70,800–71,000 (only rebound, no reversal expectation)

Mid-term

- Core: 73,000 not recovered, trend remains bearish
- Key: 68,000 level determines whether deeper correction occurs

V. Risk Reminder

- Linkage: ETH breaks down, short-term no bullish stance
- March options expiration and liquidity impact are significant; strictly control positions and stop-loss
- 70,500 is a contested point; only discuss recovery after holding above 71,000